Indystorm

3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Branson could be in trouble in the next hour or two.

Yes, evening shows starting soon.  Even if no tor touchdown occurs large hail could do a lot of damage to cars in those theater parking lots.

Tor warned storms with reported funnel clouds at both the east and west ends of the cells in Missouri.

Branson 68/59    with sw gusts to 25 mph

Funnel cloud reported per spotters 6 miles ne of Monett near Hoberg

That storm is becoming one dominant massive supercell.

If the hailer continues hard right Branson may be in trouble.

Greater tor threat may actually be in se MO area as LLJ increases and we have better moisture.  But hail and straight line winds are the main concerns.

Good thing that dew points are only in the upper 50's to 60 down by Fort Smith.

SPC meso page has 2000-2500 CAPE now in sw MO with good lapse rates nosing in.  Dews leave something to be desired but moisture transport moving northward. Storms trying to fire in se KS nw of Joplin.

1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

Looks like more than a localized wind/hail threat.

Assuming initiation does happen and that the NAM isn't grossly overdoing moisture... Looks like a nocturnal tornado threat into east OK Monday eve/night. 

Agree. NAM continues to emphasize a good threat for ne OK and sw MO Monday eve/night with parameters increasing in severity.  NAM did better than the more progressive GFS on the Feb. 27/March 1 system so it certainly bears watching as we get closer. Springfield AFD beginning to express concern.

LSR's say trees and power lines down in Whitney area with 4-5 homes damaged, one without a roof.

Good couplet now showing up on NWS velocity radar.

Polygon warnings are not being displayed on NWS radars.  HHave had this issue before.  Not good when tornadic cells might be headed your way.

As Thundersnow posted the current parameters look very favorable for one of the best set ups we have yet seen this year if they come to fruition.  Any analog mentioning 5/3/99 certainly has my attention.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0752 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383...

VALID 020052Z - 020215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN THROUGH WCNTRL MO THROUGH

02Z...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE

EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO EXTREME ERN KS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE

THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSIST FROM JUST SE OF KANSAS CITY EWD

THROUGH NCNTRL MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING

WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW IN NERN KS THEN SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL KS. WHAT

APPEARS TO BE A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS

FROM NWRN ARK THROUGH SWRN MO INTO SERN KS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS

VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND WAS SAMPLED BY SPRINGFIELD

MO 00Z RAOB INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES...3400 J/KG MLCAPE...250

M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS

ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. STORMS REMAIN PRIMARILY

DISCRETE. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS

EVENING AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND THE SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUPPORTING

A SWD MOVING...FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY

BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME ERN KS.

..DIAL.. 07/02/2015

Effective tor of 6 in west central MO south of the tor warned cell.

I see in the watch description that tops could get to 60,000 feet.  Quite respectable.  I do think the storm exploding se of KC might be the one to watch at present.

80% chance of an upcoming watch shortly for the KS/MO border region per SPC.

85/74 KC    94/67 Topeka

This might be Bastardis 45 days of mayhem. Delayed but not denied.

I was thinking of saying this but afraid I'd get slammed.  Better you than me.  Good luck to all chasers out there in that time period!

Good research, Quincy, on your tornado forecast.  I suppose it is always more difficult to forecast trends with tornadoes than what a hurricane season might look like as Dr. Gray at Colorado State and others have done well in advance.  My concern for May at least with recent model runs is the apparent lack of a strong jet stream in the CONUS.  That, of course, can change.

EF 4's in Harrisburg and Henryville that early in the season that far north surprised me, but they were only a prelude to a record setting March temp wise.

I wish I could give you a Pulitzer prize for web journalism for this historic thread for your outstanding documentation of this event from its inception through ongoing recovery.

Glad you made the transition OK Baroclinic Instability. Looking forward to your reports this winter. Tom Skilling loves to take Alaska vacations and talks frequently about it on WGN weather. Continue to drop in the Plains and Lakes forums when things get interesting down here. We certainly appreciate your expertise.

These commemorative articles and postings are informative and hopefully cathartic,JoMo. It is truly hard to believe that it has been a year and you have done a magnificent job preserving this record for posterity.

This thread is brilliant.

It is amazing to re-read this thread and so educational, particularly wrt model differences and what actually played out. I guess I was most surprised by the NAM and GFS catching the morning convection while the RUC totally missed it.