AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Subsurface trends early 2018 has 7 analogs.. 3 went El Nino, 4 were Neutral. The way it's going, I would guess Weak or low end Moderate El Nino as a max, about the same % chance for Neutral, and slight chance we go back to Weak Nina in the Fall.

Hurricane season is probably active with a lot of US misses.

Neutral NAO, but really I might call this slightly negative

Hadley Cells expanded north, Polar Vortex shifted

Next year might be El Nino so that would be interesting with how warm N Hemisphere SSTs were this Winter. 

I would think in a 1000 year period the largest snowfall would happen in the Southeast, US. probably Florida

21 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Blocking.... anyone? Plenty to go around. 

 

Theres one of two things that will probably happen when and if this pattern breaks - and one would highly favor the sub. Either this blocking stays put and we carry on through a very chilly spring/early summer (near record breaking if all stays put... yuck)... OR we get a pattern change and we will make a sudden change from 30’s and 40’s, to 70’s and 80’s within a weeks time. The good about that is the amount of cold air that will still be to the north - thus a very good severe weather season. 

 

Hard to say what will happen though. With any luck blocking will stay in place and it’ll be in the 50’s for Memorial Day. 

Definitely warm when breaks

A below average cold season

The +PNA is legit with ENSO subsurface right now. 

This is some pretty awesome cold for April. Wonder if it verifies.

NAO is being subborn now on medium term models (meaning no neg NAO). Stratosphere warmings are followed by 2 -NAO bursts. This could be a sign for long regime +NAO phase still.. 

Don't want to upload because of image size, but these images are so cool

-PNA is just too strong on models. +500dm day 6. It's just really rare for this to go away 

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

When is the last time that we had three consecutive La Nina winters?

98-99, 99-00, 00-01. It's not too uncommon. 54-56 had a nice streak. 73-76 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I think a 3rd Nina year would be weird because of Global warming bias right now. 1 center El Nino event since 2010 in this exponentially warming climate? 

Don't expect it to go El Nino anytime soon.. subsurface for this late in the Winter may even support a Nina rebound in the Summer if it doesn't persist at the surface 

2 hours ago, tramadoc said:

7 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled 

10 or11 days away? Come on man. You're better than that.

It has model agreement 

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

Storm potential March 6-8.. starting to look like -PNA may not be as modeled 

Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5

On 2/22/2018 at 10:38 AM, calculus1 said:

Man, you continue to post the most disconnected stream of consciousness that I typically have no idea what you are saying.  I think your intent is to say that global warming is bad and everything and everybody is going to die soon.  If so, that's quite the bummer, but but it's hard to know for certain if that's what you mean.  How can the globe be both "warming exponentially" and "regressing"?  Or, are you saying that after we all die off the warming will cease?  And, what's this about control and power?  Are you suggesting we should encourage the extinction of the human race so as to save the planet?

Then, you've got some crazy talk about interdimensional energy sources and the unconscious consciousness of the human mind.  Just.  Wow.

You'll love this one, Global warming is another way of saying dimension split.. we are on really really low end here. Almost to the point of not going back but not quite yet but we are heading that way

Good morning February 

backdoor fronts this far south on a 588 ridge in February 

The SST movement changes direction next few weeks. This is when you'll see it change or not, some people say a Kelvin wave like we had is a preceding mark. Those +subsurface in the western regions are impressive. I think it's strengthening versus climo is a  strong signal for North Pacific -PNA, like we are seeing now. The whole pattern has shifted north 200 miles so you aren't going to see severe wx setups like early 2000s