AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Historically, the inverse OctoberAO-WinterNAO signal ends around October 25, and then there is increasing similarity, peaking around November 20. Pretty text book right here. 

Strong La Nina and El Nino historically dominate with a strong Polar vortex, overpowering the -QBO times past, although I don't think this to be true in El Nino in theory. Historically data -1.2 to +1.2 ENSO with -QBO is 60% chance of -AO Winter. 

QBO-Winter temps correlation is actually weaker than random on 70 years of data. This also applies to with ENSO. 

re: post above, throw any 6 years together and you'll probably get concentrated anomalies. 

I get it lure as predictable. QBO has to do with Stratospheric warming, and -QBO generally means more -AO events, although this works better with El Nino.

October's AO is 60-65% oppositely correlated to Dec-Feb NAO. Most, maybe all, other months in the year are similarly correlated (maybe one in the Spring was 49%).    November is strongest direct correlation. -October/+November is 70%. 
October is the forecasting stone and it's +AO on models, even where this graph in the long range shows mix.

You're right

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-QBO to hopefully provide some polar assist..

El Nino/-QBO 60% correlated to -NAO

La Nina/+QBO 60% correlated to +NAO

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law of balances states that you can estimate the impact A had on B by seeing what B did to A?

Storm is really expanding in size. very symmetrical. back to Cat 4 next 24-48 hours. 

59 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This Guadeloupe radar is now giving a better image:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

and on the same site, you can access hourly obs from various locations in Guadeloupe. Unfortunately Basse-Terre was not reporting winds in the past hour, rainfalls appear to be 20-30 mm per hour. 

Becoming more cyclically organized but starting to bias toward the NE side. It's hard to get Cat 5 in this condition. The radar is probably off center or something 

less weight on Jose, I think. easy model bias identified. Maria is its own beast

Check out the SW side of Jose, how it's drying out reaching a calm

Only 1 storm didn't hit America, and it was furthest NW of the bunch, soon to be nonanalog.

La Nina still being underestimated, I think

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

Around Neutral. I'm using 500mb maps. sometimes Iceland region is considered because that's the northern dipole in SLP. +AO
 

2005 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2005-2006 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7).  Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Yes

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes

9-1-2

This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. 

Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). 

The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. 
The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69). 

The 500mb pattern is so good to keep it south. Actually, more classic for Gulf coast hurricanes than east coast. I give Maria a 75% chance of hitting Florida or going into the Gulf. Jose remnants less likely to bring it north. (it may not be that strong though unless going really far south)

having fun...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/Hurricane-Jose
Analog 1, happened a month later, not as deep. 

analog 2, westward track from north
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/Major-Hurricane-Georges

Hugo, moving west and earlier intensification 
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/Major-Hurricane-Hugo

earlier intensification
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/Major-Hurricane-David

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/Major-Hurricane-Cleo

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/Hurricane-Edith

Best analog:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/Major-Hurricane-Dog

3 storms since 1935 strengthened rapidly where Maria is expected: Cleo, Edith, Dog

(All 7 are ENSO cold cycle times)

Maybe if it evolves quickly into a Cat 3/4, a further south track will happen. Nothing in the area at this time of the year has intensified so quickly, moving so far north. Big storms create momentum, and at this is a time of deep cyclones, for some reason, models aren't attuned (example1: Irma went south of Florida entirely, 75% of strong storms do the same thing- go with basic steering patterns vs 500mb influence). I think also there is a Moderate La Nina influence happening right now that is mostly being missed. 

Has anyone considering plotting 9 planetary +1 moon position in the 360 sky, include angles to each other, versus World weather, also +++ so many days, going back as far as satellites have been plotting data? it would be over ten thousand variables. Could be awesome. 
I would do it with fast software. You could go forward 1000 years

Solar Cycle, decadal Water oscillations, and probably even greenhouse emissions is very simplistic of view of the world, I think. There is expanded communication happening now on awesome levels and even our ability to view the universe is 10,000x greater than before. This is a point in human consciousness evolution that history doesn't really have a point of reference for, shifting into new energy fields, dream perception, or something... new  the Earth's warming is just a really measurable part of it. 

45 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Can any natural mechanism explain the dramatic increase increase in temperatures on land and in the oceans over the last few decades?

 

When you show me one that can, let me know. 

I think Internet is a small wave inside a bigger wave. 1995 was internet boom, and 97-98 was major Earth climate cycle shift, super El Nino etc. 

Technology with regards to climate impact has pretty much halted since the 1970s, why are global temperatures spiking so anomalously in the last 20 years? Seriously though, technology has flat lined (cars, houses, NASA, etc), the Earth is speeding up major now. I think there other factors at play, probably having do with government. 

It takes 2-3 years for the Earth to really catch up to Arctic ice area. 
 

140 years is a big enough sample to seriously consider something other than coincidence at work. While I can't come up with a reasonable explanation for your data, nothing can be dismissed as a possible cause. Pure luck would make this a decent mathematical anomaly.

Do you have data on rainfall days during these times? It is also possible that a few Tropical systems are significantly skewing the averages.