AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Nice, sharp -NAO now developing on medium/long range models. Evolves into -EPO.. 

I guess it would still be El Nino.. but that's using climate progression as a base. It was much different 2016 - before April 2018. 

N Pacific pattern doesn't match subsurface data again.. this first happened in March or May 2018. 

weird.. it's going to roll into -AO next Summer. 

Quite a cold subsurface. Looks like emerging La Nina if correct.

Look at this +PNA/-NAO starting to set up

I don't know if I'm in the same weather as everyone, but the continued Pacific +PNA is hopeful, and something we didn't see 2016-2018. 

Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though

So anomalous it seesawed back as +AO

It's warm at the surface though

Maps show no more El Nino.. but we have a strong +PNA / -EPO moving in.. It looks like El Nino conditions still haven't slowed down since April 2018. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

-AO is actually so powerful short term, that it reverses as +AO in 4 days. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

How is arctic ice doing today? 

Storms around, drought continues. The drought here continues.. I think it's rained once in the last month. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Care to elaborate?

The jet stream is north. 

Really evolves around the melting arctic ice. This is 3 days from now, Look at the +PNA

Another Europe heat ridge follows, probably record breaking (like the one France broke 550/1050 records).

Major summertime -AO

03-04 is a pretty good analog. Maybe with a blend of 12-13. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/anchorage-alaska-hits-90-degrees-record-shattering-heatwave-n1026876

Today a near-600dm 500mb ridge is off the Alaskan coast.

It should be accelerating into September. May take it a year to catch up though. 

I mean wow for arctic ice melt

594 ridge in Alaska

Correlations to 2012 in arctic sea ice loss. In 2012 we hit 19 named storms in Neutral ENSO. 

5 hours ago, Newman said:

Here's a look at how the SST's have changed since June:

Big time N Pacific changes, now correlating with an arctic ice melt. It may be hard to get true +PNA this Winter. 

Yeah, expect it to stay warmer than normal as we go through the early Fall. 

Man what a Summer weatherwise . We don't get derecho's like before. It is getting better though. 

Pretty good correlations to a year ago +1 month actually.