AfewUniversesBelowNormal

huh?

Nice subsurface trend uniform cold West warm central moving east. Should be el Nino through jan-feb weak or moderate.

Real strong +PNA popping up now. 

It also has the look of a late-1970s style El Nino for the Fall.

Ok, Thanks. I think El Nino will keep out to ocean activity down, but the Atlantic triple pattern could record some good hits.

June 1-0-0

July 2-1-0

August 3-3-1

September 4-3-2

October 2-2-0

November 1-0-0

Total 14-9-3

June 1

July 2

August 3

September 4

October 2

November 1

Yeah.. STJ. rain lol

86 at 11:40, feels like 92.

-AO showing up. Could be a big season for SE, US and Gulf hits. 

Getting hot, will probably be some nice storms. 

Sky is bright blue, clear. Yesterday the storms moved in as a "high energy front". I would say the same thing happens today.

Somewhat of a subsurface recovery, we are still in El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised for Nino 3.4 to warm in the next few weeks.

The North Pacific looks very El Ninoish for the next 15 days. Subsurface is cooling. -OLR for the first time in a long time near 180W is going to keep us away from a +north Pacific Hadley cell though, despite neutral/negative ENSO.

Subsurface is Weak La Nina, but the +PNA is stringent. Through the next 15 days, wonder why the disconnect.

Cold May begats thunderstorm-less Summer

It looks like a -AO period really takes hold in the medium and long range. 

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

12z extended 34 hour Hrrr has a couple 5" lollies near DC and Baltimore. 

 

Here we go again [(Major govt interference)]

As expected, we're getting this near-surface subsurface warming

Pretty strong El Nino pattern coming up

I think we are still going into El Nino

Kind of disappointing.. you could tell earlier today with the way the clouds were low and throughout that it wasn't going to do clear enough for storm. Lifted index is -3 to -4, radar is dying out a bit. 

Look at all these storm reports already today

Classic El Nino looking pattern on the long range GFS

Look at this +Nino 1.2 cold-PDO difference in the last 7 days

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Looks good for tomorrow.

It might just recenter West and ramp up for a Fall-Winter 2019-2020 El Nino

Get some cold 1.2 readings over the Summertime for hurricane season