AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Here it is, mostly based around Alaska

Spins off a big PNA

A lot of convection moving through tonight, look at the storms in Illinois and Missouri, could be fun tomorrow. 

You would say this is from the declining arctic ice, but I think it's a carry over from the El Nino. 

It's not going to rain tomorrow based around here lol maybe in your own reality.

Pretty morning

Super -AO pattern develops

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

start 

finish 

I've been watching the development of a global drought. France hit high temperatures and now Alaska isn't really cold either. New patterns are being factored into models, and we are approaching cold season. I am interested to see what happens. Does Alaska stay warm? 

The bubble actually started in 2013. 

It's been a nothing year weather-wise.. this makes sense, at least it's staying organic lol

Watch it reverse in the Winter lol

Atlantic SST NAO index for DJFM is -1.4 on Aug 8th. 

31/33 last DJFM months have been +NAO lol. DJF 19 in a row. 

Maybe next year.. the ridge is building around a -WP
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Look at this loading pattern now heading into the Bering Straight

49 minutes ago, Newman said:

We will see how the warm pool south of Alaska progresses into the fall and winter, but it was certainly quite warm in July:

 

Let's say that the warm pool doesn't migrate and/or lessen over the coming months, 2013-14 could be a semi-decent analog for the PDO/EPO region specifically:

 

PDO is important. It does look like the Pacific pattern is starting to change though. 

Yeah, on this day the atmosphere/modeling changed too. 

It's a High pressure signal building

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has been an amazing dewpoint surge since 2016. This was the first July with an average dewpoint over 70 degrees for JFK. Last year was the first such occurrence in August. 

Global precipitation has increased significantly since Summer 2016.

This stuff in the GOA is just model adjust SLP norms picking up on Arctic circle high pressure adjustment

Converging

West coast drought.. why isn't SF anomaly in the news, and now Seattle. 

Space weather.. are we exploring, it's obvious at this point that we are in a bit of a bubble so what's the leading edge, etc. 

Everyone's perception is different.. what is radar? Is forecasting more socilogical

I sent them an email in Winter 17-18 and believe that it led to a Stratosphere warming, and then a chain of events that I'm grateful for

As per subsurface, 4/4 since 1950 were Winter El Nino's, 2 Weak 2 Moderate 49-50 was La Nina.

I see the rain as "the other side" of a dry period, already accounted for, the time. Not really an exciting severe wx day except maybe in VA and southern MD

Subsurface is moving toward El Nino,, cold west vs warm east is like +0.3 - +0.4. Surface is ninaish in the east, el nino in Nino 4 which has been the trend since 97-98. Atmosphere is El Nino

Pretty good SPC outlook for severe storms today, but my house is a bubble so it will be fun to see. 

The Winter NAO index per Atlantic SSTs is pretty ridulously negative, like -1.2~3 NAO (DJFM) on this day. 

This has been a model trend since May, and in the last few days. 

12z GFS ensemble

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Day 5  Day 7:

What appeared at 12z, which wasn't there at 06z and 00z and before is ridging over AK and south of AK, which I think is reflective of model-bias-movement/trend toward the arctic vs actual conditions over the North Pacific imo hrs 264 and 348