AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Return of El Nino pattern

It looks like a bomb went of in Aberdeen lol, something expanding out. 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=LWX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Just now, bluewave said:

No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions.

 

It might just trend warmer. I'd be surprised if we didn't see persistent arctic heat through September, last year early September north of Alaska was 80 degrees, +5SDs. 

11 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

38 days until Labor Day 

This is kind of a disappointing time of year. The last few days have been especially cool. 

10 hours ago, Jessy89 said:

I have a gut feeling the United States will see one big land falling hurricane. Just my gut could be wrong


.

SSTs are record warm, 2005-like. ENSO is cooling too. 

Both the Pacific and Atlantic are opposite of last year, kind of a flat lining I think. The PNA was really persistently negative 2017-2018, and really changed last Nov-Dec to more neutral, or late 70's-like. It's a different pattern, I expect us to find other planets lol. 

9 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

 

That was unexpected.


.

 

I'd expect much more melt next year, personally. 

-NAO is really getting going on models, I suspect it will become stronger. -EPO is now showing up too. A lot of arctic ice melt pattern, could actually be bad for the Winter. 

It looks like another cold wave is developing in the subsurface. 

then again.. we haven't seen cold anomalies dominate like this in the Winter. but I think they did last july. 

Check it out, a monster -NAO

MIddle of Summer, -NAO is cranking

NAO has been negative since April

This means it will be a SE ridge Winter lol

Check it out, I had no rain. 2 radar's refresh

(1st image had more moderate rain's)

Radar is showing moderate rain here, but nothing is falling. 

This hits me as impressive

Turns into a pretty strong -NAO

err.. too much water to the west to have a good thunderstorm day. 

So this thunderstorm threat/heavy rain just appears out of nowhere (we usually don't see no risk turn into MOD rain in 2-3 days). I'm totally taking credit. 

Should be a really nice day for storms, today. I'm wanting a MCS/derecho though. 

I wonder how many times in recorded history we've melted at the North Pole? 1 time as far as I know. The trend continues stronger

This is interesting

Yeah, I can see how you would think La Nina based on the current subsurface, but the atmosphere is still very much El Nino. 

Another record showing up in about 7 days.