AfewUniversesBelowNormal

It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees. 

I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year. 

I don't know what that has to do with ENSO! Subsurface configuration has held good amidst changing global conditions through the year. 

I'd say it looks more Neutral, El Nino pattern broke a short time ago now we are in Neutral wavelengths. It broke like 7 days ago. 

Pretty major +NAO, evolving to -PNA in a few days. Signing toward a jet stream 300 miles north this Winte rimo

Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing".

One heck of a +NAO kicking now.. gives way to -NAO in 10-13 days per models, will be interesting. 

2 hours ago, frd said:

We lost the - NAO and so begins the record + that will last until April 2020 .

And yes I do think it had a role in the summer not going super hot at times,  when it was at its deepest negative. Even though a lackluster -NAO is suppose to have no effect on cooling the NE section of the country. We had record drops. Some say a delayed response to the late season warmingh event.  And, of course the Cold pool that had exsisted was also a factor.  Which if I may add is viewed as a signal for the winter ahead that a averaged -NAO may occur.    

 

It's just running around seasonal.. it will be interesting to see if the Atlantic SST index, which has been a great predictor of the Winter NAO, and came in about -1.00 verifies. 

3 hours ago, frd said:

Crazy stuff at the South Pole and in general the SH SSWE 

 

 

 

It's been a really "neutralizing time".. not really surprising. I'd expect a warmer than average Fall. At least we have Fall, that starts on like Aug 31 lol. 

New -PNA conditions are a cause for concern. I'd expect the PDO to go from +1.70 to about +0.55

Subsurface cold is fizzling a little bit. New cold pool around 140E suggests we probably stay +Neutral

I'd say recent developments in the Pacific are not good. 

On 9/1/2019 at 5:42 PM, frd said:

And so it has started 

 

 

Nov and Dec 2017 and 2018 had a record cold Stratsophere.. -700 vs the usual -150/-250

Nice to see the modeled -NAO ripped apart in the shorter term again. 

Bad news in the Pacific on models in the medium/long range as we roll into the Fall (for the Winter). 

This might be a record +AO here for a while. It's probably not as cold at the surface. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Finally signs of a changing Pacific on the 384hr GFS

We shouldn't be able to go too far into La Nina, not less than -0.7c I think. The Nino 3.4 is "Neutral/El Nino conditions"

13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But what about the hemispheric energies?

It's got a little better. I was worried about substantial arctic ice melt. 

6 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Welp... now it isn’t going to happen because you said it.

probably not this time

Water in the N Atlantic look really good for a -NAO this Winter.. I'd bet it happens. 

government blocked me lol

It's not really possible to have this pattern (+PNA) with the subsurface the way it is, or an anomaly. I say this because the +PNA hasn't broken since last April 2018. 

-NAO chopped and destroyed now.. it always amazes me. Something tells me it's a +NAO pattern, but the N. Atlantic SST index as a predicotr for DJFM is -1.0. 

Look at this subsurface, we could have a Moderate La Nina burst at the surface in the next few weeks.  

Images on NASA suggested otherwise, but that's just surface based. I would think "normally" we would be accelerating more ice loss by now. 

I don't know, rate of decline of arctic ice seemed much more in the late 1990s through 2007. If you run a linear line forward for the last 12 years, this season is below normal in it's decrease.