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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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    June Mid-Long Range

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

    Just looking over the climate models for the summer months (June-Aug) and they probably suggest avg to below avg temps for the summer. 

    Below we see the CANSIPs which shows ridging into the central US with troughing down the US seaboard. This setup would suggest heat would be mostly confined to the south central US over into the deep SE. The troughing in the east would suggest cooler then avg temps for our region. And looking at the temp profiles reflects this. An aside here, but that setup would probably favor land-falling tropical systems through the gulf states into the deep SE coastal states. That said you can not exclude the possibility of something farther up the east coast if something gets timed well

     

    This is not the latest run of the CFS but the one from May 31'st so I could do a 3 month avg. CFS is very similar with the broad overall wavelength at 500's. So what was said above stands here as well. But the one thing that I do question is the temp anomaly profile. I just don't buy it. Showing cold deep into the south central US runs counter to what the 500's show and the above anomalies running up the east coast just doesn't fit with the mean trough being located through that region

     

    Looking at both Sept and Oct we see the eastern trough break down and we go into a zonal flow across the US. So if the models are correct our best chances for heat/prolonged heat probably reside in the late summer into early fall time period as the rest of the summer would probably be avg to below avg temps. One other thing of note is that the setup probably argues for a fairly active summer for Thunder Storms/Severe through our region. 

    Can't go against recent trends for a warmer than average SE.

    May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, bluewave said:

    This has to be the most extreme battle between the SE Ridge and Greenland Block that we have ever seen this time of year. The end result is the severe storms and soaking rains we have been getting in the battle zone. 

    It is a little surprising with Aleutian trough. -AO does correlate to SE ridge this time of year. Hawaii ridge was a powerful force in the Winter too.

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