AfewUniversesBelowNormal

In the last year it's rained/quality like it only was in the 1990s. I love it. 

Look at this +NAO in the extended. It's actually rare for NAO to carry over from March to April and through the Spring, it usually switches phases.

+NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)

Pretty cool animation of the cold front to snow on 18z GFS domprecip type.  It won't verify though. 

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995:

I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. 

https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html

(click to animate)

What the Euro does between 144-168 is incomprehensible. (click to animate)

Euro is coming in. Look at this pattern. 

El Nino is finally getting organized after 1 year of general behavior. It will likely go Moderate-Strong. 

Look at this +NAO today. NAM has it down to 468dm!

LR modeling PNA is cutting troughs underneath like last year at this time (El Nino). 

I can always tell what the NAO is by local weather. 

Wow -EPO sure did come out of nowhere

The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly. 

lol

Just letting you know.. next Winter isn't going to do it without the PDO, and the PDO is not going to move positive in the Spring or Summer or Fall. 

Yeah, we almost have a connect here on the 12z Euro. If the NAO was negative, but that's not possible to happen so.. it's probably a severe threat like the GFS has. 

The Euro upgrade was no good, that happened last Winter (ECMWF). 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. There actually a decent amount of eps  members that get snow into our area around the 26th/27th. Nothing crazy but for March 26th that's pretty impressive.

GFS has a decent event here. 3-4 hours of light snow. 

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The day 10 Euro didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be spring.

 

It's showed -EPO 2 runs in a row.. it would be interesting to see if it develops. 

FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season. 

It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? 

You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?

The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era. 

Maybe some storms with this one. 

Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. 

I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels.