AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Looks like a La Nina making. I doubt anything real could develop in this environment. 

After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land). 

I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month. 

Here comes the La Nina.

My prediction is developing La Nina. 

Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months.. 

Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts. 

ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change... 

To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Pretty bulllish La Nina sign

How about the coming +PNA/GOA Low on models days 14-15. 

I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year. 

I don't know what that has to do with ENSO! Subsurface configuration has held good amidst changing global conditions through the year. 

Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing".

Subsurface cold is fizzling a little bit. New cold pool around 140E suggests we probably stay +Neutral

This might be a record +AO here for a while. It's probably not as cold at the surface. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Finally signs of a changing Pacific on the 384hr GFS

We shouldn't be able to go too far into La Nina, not less than -0.7c I think. The Nino 3.4 is "Neutral/El Nino conditions"

government blocked me lol

It's not really possible to have this pattern (+PNA) with the subsurface the way it is, or an anomaly. I say this because the +PNA hasn't broken since last April 2018. 

Look at this subsurface, we could have a Moderate La Nina burst at the surface in the next few weeks.  

Images on NASA suggested otherwise, but that's just surface based. I would think "normally" we would be accelerating more ice loss by now. 

I don't know, rate of decline of arctic ice seemed much more in the late 1990s through 2007. If you run a linear line forward for the last 12 years, this season is below normal in it's decrease. 

I guess it would still be El Nino.. but that's using climate progression as a base. It was much different 2016 - before April 2018. 

N Pacific pattern doesn't match subsurface data again.. this first happened in March or May 2018. 

weird.. it's going to roll into -AO next Summer. 

Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though