AfewUniversesBelowNormal

What a change in the pattern. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

Anyway, it looks like an +AO will be building in hours 300-372. 

18 hours ago, yoda said:

Saw this tweet by Ian... new state record for total precip in MD

https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/1110613785927172096

Yeah, it was a wet one here. There was a storm in July that rained something like 10", I've only seen it rain that hard a few times. 2-5 miles down the road it was just heavy.  

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Bring on the warmth, just so long as it isn't over 80 degrees... that can wait.

It looks to get pretty warm. A few roll forward things I did suggested a warm April.

I wonder if we'll see another Kelvin Wave in early May. 

Actually a pretty nice +PNA coming up. Pattern change to something "real".

It's snowed here on May 2 before.. I think 2003. 

Dec-Mar 87-95.. 29/33 months +NAO

Jan 90 - Mar 95.. 26/28 months +NAO

32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I guess FV3 will be showing hits till May lol

For tomorrow...

 

I wonder if 00z models will trend. 18z NAM and GFS both have something. 

This April will make 29 of the last 30 months Dec-Apr of +NAO. The lowest monthly November NAO value in that time is -0.16. There was a time in the early 1990s of 26/28 months, and 29/33 months. 

The April will make the 9th consecutive +NAO April. 

8 December's in a row. 6 January's in a row. The 1 month /30 of -NAO was after a 10mb Stratosphere warming. March 2013 was the last -NAO. Before then, 11/13 Nov-Apr months were +NAO, going back to 2011.

Here we go again

Hot Spring forecasted.. 

Really abnormal time in the last year for England/Ireland.

Looking forward to this. 

Again, it's currently the 5-month lowest SOI since 1997: 

Following on the El Nino theme. 

Look at this nice +PNA though. We didn't see the North Pacific trough cut so far SW in the last El Nino. Pattern change. 

On 3/21/2019 at 7:19 PM, NegativeEPO said:

well it looks like you can kiss a warm April goodbye, might be even worse than last year, I think. In fact, I think this entire year might be the one of the coldest on record by a long shot for the eastern half of the country. Wouldn't surprise me if we see some snow in June. It's one of the consequences of climate change unfortunately. Years like 2012 may never be seen in the midwest/east ever again.

It was cold in a lot of earlier 1900s years. In the 3, 5, or 10 year average, definitely colder though. 

No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)

We could use -NAO though.. 

Check this out for the coming -NOI, it has the dual-opposite Pacific-Atlantic pattern of EPO-PNA/NAO.

April NOI is important for Moderate El Nino's.

This is the 18z GFS ensembles, which is a lot different from the Euro. It has a massive -EPO, which I would expect to trend toward more +PNA/EC trough. 

This is a reminder of the great April 2-5 1987 snowstorm. 1987 and 1997, both as organized developing El Nino Spring's had big snowstorms in the first few days of April.. 2015 did not. 

I wonder if it will happen. Look at the +PNA. 

Here's a graph I did of ENSO subsurface 1980-present. Notice 92-93/93-94 and 03-04 were higher than 15-16. It also gives credence to my theory that the 1997 El Nino was produced, because look at the swing after. 

Yeah, I deleted my thread too early. Several tornado warning cells. 

IO (MJO)