AfewUniversesBelowNormal

I mean, the most named storms ever in El Nino is 15 (2004) and second is 12 in 11 years

(Since 1978. The 1960s went higher)

Thanks. This is the subsurface data for May. 

2018    5     0.73      0.76       0.89

Opp: 2016, 2010, 1998, 1995, 1992 

For: 2012, 2011, 2009, 2006, 1997, 1989

7/11 chance El Nino (CPC ONI) (but it's really about 90%)

It could be one of the best Winters in a while 

This means subsurface temps in the central region will continue cooling, which probably means the events remains Weak or goes back to Neutral in the Fall. 

Tao/Triton maps are warming rather rapidly. +0.5 pool 

The surface is warming pretty rapidly now. We'll be able to see it in about a week. 

Here comes El Nino

Surprised so many high guesses, the AMO is cold and we are going into El Nino most likely. I can see 13-7-3, something like that. 

Some +3> subsurface anomalies are getting close to the surface and Nino 3.4 has made switch to positive. Maybe in a few weeks.. AMO should start to warm soon, wonder if this will create a sea-saw effect with ENSO (spurring Nino). Medium term models are La Ninaish for the Hemisphere. 

6 hours ago, 87storms said:

still early in the season.  all things considered, we've done pretty well in that category so far.

No, we haven't. This is like 175% water after ice cubes melt, in the air and stuff. It's not thunderstorm producing. 

Now the modeled pattern is shifting a little bit. I think more in an AMO thing though. 

So check it out, subsurface negative trend  in the center of subsurface regions, and big -PNA

13 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Don't get me wrong, I can promise you I really really x1000 really want a weak Niño going into this autumn and winter. I also DO acknowledge that the atmosphere looks like Niño quite a lot right now. (Warm ridging over the northern central plains and into central Canada, cool moist underneath and cutoffs forecast to keep hitting the west coast) Problem is that it's more of a reflection of what I know to be a winter Niño state than what is commonly associated with a developing Niño in the summertime. Hence why my weight is pretty heavy on it failing. It will be fun to watch and see though.

Good point. I think there is also an unsaid point of the average global temperature is +0.3 to +0.4 right now

SPC colors of light Green, Yellow are too close to the blue-feel of melting arctic ice/methane. Maybe warmer colors be better?

This severe stuff drives me crazy. It's always Slight or MRGL Risk. UGH! Remember when thunderstorms were so rich? 

You may be right. The whole Global pattern supports Weak El Nino right now. I've seen it evolve many times, and a developing Weak El Nino in June-July rarely wanes before the next year. Things have cooled off short term. The subsurface is impressive, especially since the cold pool in trend is peaking. Nino 3.4 will be +0.5 to +0.7 in 4-6 weeks is my guess. 

I researched things some 10 years ago with real data points correlations in a 1948-2007 dataset, and found tremendous correlation to subsurface ENSO anomalies and North Pacific pattern. The correlation was stronger than any surface El NIno/Nina, MJO, OLR, SST trend/difference. 

This cold pool is happening as the North Pacific +PNA is waning. Not a coincidence. 

El Nino signal in the North Pacific

The blue looks good. I'm curious, do you get any towering cumulus there? It's a nice day out here today.. towering cumulus

I know this point has been run into the ground, but this will be a very +NAO May. global harmonic signal.. by Aug-Oct

2-month mean Apr-May +NAO 

On 5/19/2018 at 11:20 PM, Cerakoter1984 said:

I think it's a head-fake that never becomes a Niño. Warm-neutral with folks trying to call it a Niño is my call.

The rate of warming now, it will at least be Weak for a time. We would need a pretty significant global pattern change for it to not at least go Weak El Nino for some time. 

The May 19 map is better..  

May 1991 is a good analog to this wet pattern. 

They will probably extend the Marginal to the area tomorrow. 

lol good call