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mackerel_sky

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Everything posted by mackerel_sky

  1. mackerel_sky
    When major pattern changes are in the works, the models flip flop a lot, so hopefully just a blip, like Clemsons’ 35 game win streak, that’s about to be ended!
  2. mackerel_sky
    6z gfs says, continue to enjoy your rain!
  3. mackerel_sky
    It’s just another forecast tool. They can change daily, their forecast. As best as I understand, phases 1,2,8, and now 7, per Webber, are our coldest phases for E and SE in winter months
  4. mackerel_sky
    MJO 7, gives CLT a lot of winter storms, so 7 is good
  5. mackerel_sky
    I think he may have went above normal for the whole winter in the East, originally, but has flip flopped a bit
  6. mackerel_sky
    Anytime AK is red, it’s good for us in the E/SE
  7. mackerel_sky
    Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish!
  8. mackerel_sky
    Well JB threw out winter of 77/78 and 14/15 in analogs to the start of winter and transition now and the Australian heat and fires! So what could go wrong?
  9. mackerel_sky
    Just looked at 12z gfs, now I know why it’s dead in here! Nothing but rain through hour 384! So much for pattern change
  10. mackerel_sky
    That looks workable for a flurry or sleet pellet
  11. mackerel_sky
    Welp, the 19th is all rain for the entire forum! Good news is, bitter cold is about to hammer the Southeast around hour 300
  12. mackerel_sky
    The 5 in Birmingham, is still chilly
  13. mackerel_sky
    It’s also going to storm this weekend, you know what happens 7-10 days after that in winter!?
  14. mackerel_sky
    Add 10 degrees to all these temps, and that’s what reality will be! Still better than 60s/70s
  15. mackerel_sky
    I think the low N of Maine, is acting as a temporary block, or temporary-NAO, by it bombing out, slowing things down. That could make the storm go more S in future runs , if it’s stronger or furthe S
  16. mackerel_sky
    Also the “ ice storm” next weekend 18th or about, the high almost looks like a big banana high, and the low tracks right into it. That could be a super - wedge, and being underestimated as of now!?
  17. mackerel_sky
    The craziest part of the 18z was, the snow in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico on the 24th
  18. mackerel_sky
    Already losing it North! It’s been shifting N the past 3 days
  19. mackerel_sky
    We score our best snows from clippers
  20. mackerel_sky
    I know we can get some ice with low tracks W of the apps, but up through Chicago, meh! We have seen these crazy totals at this range already a few times this year. Still looks interesting from 18th on
  21. mackerel_sky
    Back to cutters?
  22. mackerel_sky
    Good point on both fronts! But it’s going to be hard for winter to keep sucking as bad as UNC!
  23. mackerel_sky
    And it will not be as cold as modeled, especially on the GFS. If it’s showing 30s/10s now, it’ll be 45/30 at verification
  24. mackerel_sky
    Well the mid Atlantic peeps are getting giddy, that’s usually not good for us! Maybe they can throw us a sleet pellet!?
  25. mackerel_sky
    That was fun! The 17-20th storm, turned into a cutter on 12 z
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