zenmsav6810
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Everything posted by zenmsav6810
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You could actually respond to a valid point with a reasoned thought, but your pea-brain is only capable of memes.
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Seems like a stretch. Does geographic continuity play no role in this? It seems more like a convenient fix to combine the two smallest subforums into one. What's wrong with merging us with upstate NY/PA that seems to make the most sense in my book?
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Parts of that forum are 400-500 miles away from here. I frankly can't see how the lovely people of TN would care about every thunderstorm that rolls through Cape May. If this happens I will boycott this forum for its ridiculous management. Haven't you people ever hear of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
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Seems like early winter keeps getting postponed. I know people keep talking about King Euro but what King Euro giveth, King Euro taketh. I've always advocated for Christmas happening around January 15th instead... Mother Nature owes us a white Christmas... its been awhile.
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Yeah, that makes sense. I guess we're all doomed.
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Important to remember methodology here. It's done by satellite imaging so, measurements are intermittent (depending on orbit) not to mention accurate record history might be difficult for before 1990ish. As with all optical remote sensing, these measurements are prone to occlusion error (in this case by clouds/sea water.) Also, I don't know what technically constitutes a "loss," true melting (calving events [breaks "up]) or just the loss of continuity of the Antarctic ice mass (meaning a large but complete ice shelf breaks "off") . Neabulous but important issues that probably get glazed over in non-scientific journal reporting and clickbait).
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I see mostly bullish forecasts out there. Interesting analogs. 6's forecasts annoy me. They are so afraid of busting. Glenn gets my vote. Last few years I think he verified really nicely. EPAWA looked really similar to another outlook I saw but I forgot to save the links. High uncertainty over outcomes but high certainty on the mechanics of how winter is going to work this year.
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EPAWA is a bull for NW burb winter for what its worth. : http://epawaweather.com/2016/11/02/epawa-2016-2017-winter-outlook/ Pretty in detailed analysis looks a lot like this one posted above: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-20162017/
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On the flip side backloaded winters normally work out well for us in the burbs.
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I agree with the information overload comments. I don't mind the idea of a ten day, but would rather see it as a 7-day with a three-day extension presented separately.... at the very least it needs to be one line, the two line setup is not effective. I've long thought that NBC 10's production values have been below the other networks in the area, however I think the forecasts are more on point.
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Also the nws is eliminating all caps text in their alerts and reports. Should help readability. Seems to make sense to me after all computer and telecommunications had com a long way...
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I know. I can't find the comment he made on facebook basically to this effect regarding his system. In my view, a forecast is a forecast. If you bust, you bust. If nail it as pronged then good. What I don't understand is how amateur and independent forecasters can basically get away with these multi-staged forecasts and not call it a bust even if the first forecast was never even close to correct.
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No, the 8-12" forecast doesn't count... that was the first guess map which is different from his frist call.
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This is his official final snow map.
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DT has really been all over the place with this storm. I feel bad for him: I bet his beloved Euro is stressing him out these last few days.
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DT has a modest snow for Friday.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
zenmsav6810 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'll say PDII because I was in 3rd grade and the nieghbors and I had a snowball fight of all snowball fights. It helped because I was off from school for a few days and I remember my patience with my teacher were wearing quite thin! '96 was good too, I spoke my first word "wow" when I saw the snow. 3rd and 4th for me are the Snowmegedon I and II. 5th is the ice storm from two years ago (first time I saw such destruction in a winter storm first hand). -
Ah makes more sense. Indeed he is probably one of the most aggressive forecasters in pushing the Euro's newest threats.
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Looks like DT already started a thread. I agree too early. No ego's here just trying to get more info.
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Do we know what the ensembles and OP looked like last time at this point before the last storm?
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Looks like he started his own thread.
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DT had a nice post today about the threat of an early February storm as many have indicated. He says it shows a Miller A like the last storm. Maps look like nearly identical between todays 12z 500mb EURO valid for 12z Saturday Feb 6. and the 7 am observation on Jan 21.
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DT whiffed on his first observed snow fall posted on facebook today but this new batch is better (though I fear it still doesn't give the Allentown Jackpot its earned fame).
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WMFZ met department is underated Ed Hannah does a great job with smaller budget. Gives solid if simplified reasoning in his forecsts. Lol my mom rates here weather broadcasters based off of their physical appearance. No 11 pm news goes by where she can stay quiet during the forecast about cecily's "awful wardrobe."
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DT is worked up tonight over the NWS forecast for central VA as well as the network forecast which are largely the same.