zenmsav6810

NWS claim 3-6.5" imby

I'm signed up to instruct tonight and then 36 hrs the rest of the holiday weekend in a synoptic rain storm... uhg

2016 might be an all time great for me (who could forget the NAM 'em for real on the 18z on the eve of the storm). My folks didn't believe me when I told them KYW was going to bust low with 18". I hope I get a few more like it in my life.

First signs of optimism we've seen from you in weeks! Congrats cars covered now.

Second time this winter I believe.

In the bleak mid winter, Snow had fallen, Snow on snow on snow

I have a sneaking feeling this ends up colder than modeled. Models don't show wide spread agreement at any level thermodynamically. CMC shows torched out 850's, cold as stone uppers, and borderline surfaces. Maybe we should root for radiational cooling instead of snow tonight...

NOTHIN'!

I actually think the ZR risk is over modeled, when the ice in sandwiched with snow I notice that real world takes some of the ZR qpf and turns it into sleet. ZR only happens in absolutely perfect ZR condition... to warm and it LR to cold and its Sleet. Modeling has shifted away from the classical blowout ice storm analogs. I think '07 VD is a more likely situation than a '94 or even Feb '14 ice storm. Overall the drama of this storm is over exaggerated due to winter of snore feelings by us amateurs. I think it will be 4-6" in Pottstown with plenty of sleet and 8-12" up at Bear Creek.

Very dry here dew point at 11F RH 46%

yeah, I could see the line being just south of the Schuylkill River. Classic.

Man can't wait to see the Euro play its next shot, it has a nice look for birdie on the 12z.

As usual I'm rooting for the NAM, 18z keeps the snow at the MD line.

gfs sneaks Bear Creek into the gradient of the front end thump. If you guys could wish cast this thing down about ten miles... it might mean the difference of salvaging winter.

this is like... the worst possible forecast for a skier. plain rain would be better.

All done all square! .... 1.75 "

instruments say otherwise up 89%rh here

coating and steady light snow. 1033 mbar (slightly below modeled). plow just went by. dew 22F and 83% relative humidity.

Some are weather wise, but most are otherwise.

covering for that other disaster of a operation map they put out early?

well my dad did go out and buy a used 50" two stage snowblower for our Grasshopper so...

Lazy flakes and virga here in SE of Pottstown. Barometer holding steady at 30.52. Told my folks here, 3-5".

Not sure. The GFS is an enigma. I'll never forget that triple low off NYC where we threw out GFS run after GFS run and it turned out to be right and took the storm out to sea. Centralized pressure moving closer = more dynamic setup. More dynamic = More like the NAM

I think were up to quadruple doink at this point! .... Lucy lines up for the kick but the Icon decided to ice the kicker.

Saturday looks pretty well cooked, icon looks way sheared out hardly a snow storm for anyone including Mid-Atlantic, CMC way south... just a total folly across the board. Probably worse than 18z. Euro yet to come.