zenmsav6810

Lol I've seen we've digressed into talking about '58 here. Just take your 16" inches and be happy. .... clearly too many weenies for breakfast. Nothing about this says Hecs, this is modeled as a reasonable Mecs. I dont think the low is deep enough. No wonder these storms always fall short of expectations when the expectations rise of the granddaddy of all PA blizzards-- what do you expect. I think the Para shows a nice solution however I think the gradient will be further south and tighter. Realistically there will be some dry slotting and probably a crust of sleet at some point. Somebody will probably see 20 to 22" out of this but you'd have to be color blind to see 50" on any of these maps!!

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.

Looks like a solid storm by all accounts. Pattern shaping up okay too. Still some time left but its encouraging.

If my name isn't Pottstown Potts!

Bullseyes Monmouth.... must be right...has to be right.

If there was a two weenie button I would use it.

Too early to Weenie jump. All the ingredients are in place. The only thing that worries me is the persistent warm day time temps and the above normal rainfall. We're already ahead compared to a few of the last winters.

Believe it or not it was actually on the NWS forecast for my area for 20% chance of flurries/showers. In hindsight they probably should have issued a snow squall warning.

Probably about 7-8" in Pottstown. New blower (two stage rider) from two seasons ago worked like a champ. Wrap around was a nada here. Roads were still pretty rough near Pottstown on my way over to East Earl at 9:30 am this morning. A little overforecasted but the deep interior made out. Not bad for December.

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas!

I'm starting to get worried about ski season. Natural snow prospects look bleak... not even weenie runs, and I am sure the virus will change the economic calculus on making snow...

Indeed, we've been out since noon on Wednesday. Not estimates for restoration range betweentonight at 11pm to sunday at 11pm. Don't have batteries in my wetherlink live so I missed out on data from that time period ...

I've often wondered if localized cold fronts (like those in CAD events) played more of a role in this.

Indeed I've noticed the same thing. The lines charge West to East are typically disappointments.

Pea sized hail in Green Lane

NPR said there is a group of geoscience researchers saying that the reduction in atmospheric NOx is highly remarkable and demonstrably provable using sat imagery. Going as far to say its statistically saved the lives of 4000 chinese children alone since this all started.

DT is a dog chasing his tail on this 2/5 deal... Candian shows a SECS for some of our neck of the woods taken as literal. Model Mayhem ensues.

Yeah, with things in such dire states in D.C it hard to see any of the pre-sequester stuff coming back anytime soon... We need a pro-technical president triple research funding for space, medical, infrastructure and education. The other thing that bothers me about our country is the cost of college education, it takes all of our technical minds and basically forces them to take jobs at already existing corporations instead of allowing new graduates to try their hand opening their own businesses or going on to graduate school. It literally takes the creative lifeblood out of our economy. How did we lose our momentum from the 1990's? First, we had a moron president... then we got a moron congress ...now we are going to have both. Although we have only ourselves to blame.

I think mount holly has been excellent this season. Im in no way criticizing just trying to understand the prevailing consensus attitude of forecasting using modern models at nws.

Interesting to put it that way. I never thought of it from that perspective before. Basically, you are saying its harder to make a good forecast because there are simply more duties and less time to sit back and take a good think.

Maybe he wasn't using the most up-to-date "actual measurements" data. He probably has staff (maybe even unreliable staff) for that. Perhaps in the chaos of the daily news cycle, something got confused. Hard to believe he would compromise his scientific ethic or journalistic standard for ego. I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt. He was spot on with the "none to coating" region which I think is a more important/difficult forecast. Honestly how differently does one prepare for a 5.5" versus a 3 incher? that humanistic value has to be factor when judging a forecast too. hurricane1091 I know you are relatively new here but occasionally Glenn lurks on this subforum so consider your words accordingly, we like having him as a participant here even if can't necessary post his analysis. It gives some credibility/validation to what we do here.

Yeah GMorse I guess I keep forgetting about the two wave aspect of this storm. I guess DT hasn't really made a forecast for our part of the show. I guess im not being fair.

I meant to say "first map".... these nebulous definitions that indie forecasting shops use to cover their rear ends drive me nuts!

DT's first call gives us a total screw job. Don't think this storm is going to do exactly that. Putting my money on Mt. Holly and Glenn on this one.