zenmsav6810

Set phasers to stun and have fun!

like accidentally finding plutonium

Hopefully we get some snow on the Dec 10th threat. I got a seasonal job as a ski instructor. Bear Creek doesn't open until we can keep man made snow reliably as there is no creek to keep the snowmaking pond filled like other resorts. A little bump from Mother Nature with poke things along. ...we will probably get a drought until March...

You mean it will be time for the inaugural Namming? Nam is pretty good at discerning surface temperature/precip sheild issues. OP's are not to be trusted (except the King of course). If we get a fully locked, early-phase showing up consistently on the modeling, I'll go out to get my milk and eggs early. How have we seen any shortwave interaction with these recent rain systems- I haven't been paying enough attention?

haha the weeniees on that other forum site are all in the panic room already. If it isnt modeled at least as strong as a 1996 miller a, they all jump. GEFS outputs really don't look like real life storms. CMC looks like a more classical storm. Its nice to see the higher level features coming around. I think the mesoscales will be important for figuring out the temperatures and precip field rot. I'll take a secs/mecs in december. I can understand why DT loathes the gfs, its good at sniffing them out, just not at figuring out the details.

Surely worth its own thread. The internet is abuzz with talk of this storm. Like I said early our key will be temperature and the strength of the high pressures. The latest Euro hinted at a sheared out precip field getting squished between to strong highs, reminded me of the of that thread the needle bust we had in late February a few years back (Feb '13 or '14 can't remember). Sometimes those shear scenarios make for interesting ice storms (...shutters in fear)

Just got done looking at the EPS, this looks like a hit to me. I'll forecast 4-6" for my backyard.

We tend to score on these kind of threats in mid-winter, not sure about this early in December though. With a dynamic setup the vorticity will weaken the high pressure. I think our biggest problem will be temperatures. The ground is so saturated it adds additional heat capacitance to the ground, using more work to heat it up and cool it down. Of course the cold blast helped us in November, we will need something similar to score here.

Forget Lucy, we need to keep Ralphie on lock down!!

Long live kdix!

Still a lot of time left. The high pressure seems overly strong.

Its a good thing we don't run the NWS cooperative data program. Nobody would trust the data with a 13.3" per annul bias! hehe

Presumably, it could be a sensitive as one desires, it all has to do with how large and perfectly elastic the "membrane" collecting the raindrops are, how well toleranced the piezoelectrics in the system are, how tuned the low bandpass filter is, how accurate the frequency to size model is, and how well it calibrated.

I'm kind of serious about building one of these. I actually have a decent technical aptitude from my degree for this kind of thing. I really like the acoustic impact style instrument. Basically what would need to happen is to design a basic capacitive transducer which would get sent to a low band pass filter. The data could get sent along to a mic input onto a computer or something similar, a Fast Fourier transform is run on the data, creating a power spectrum density, that frequency data then gets sent to a mapping equation using the Marshall-Palmer or Ulbricht distribution. An averaging function takes place and the data is converted into "average" raindrop size.

Build our own!? Surely, Penn State taught me something in instrumentation class! https://www.instructables.com/id/Make-an-acoustic-rain-gauge-disdrometer/

If only one of us had an audio spectrograph mass disdrometer, that would tell us the rain drop size!

Thunderer here in Pottstown at 8:02pm

Winds picking up here too, probably up to a force four or five gale. I love the Beaufort Scale.

Very slick ride home (even with quattro AWD) from Trumbauersville to Pottstown. Saw an overturned plow truck in Pottsgrove (that must be embarrassing one to tell the boss about) and a curious Toyota Solara abandoned in the middle of the intersection of Upper Ridge Road and Gerryville Pike. Picked up about 5" in Pottstown (top inch is sleet) probably at least 6.5" inches at work when I left at 4:30. Raining here now.

Yeah, I still see slopfest written all over this one. Good thing JB didn't forecast a November to remember... could have set a record for earliest season bust ever!

uh oh... better cancel winter. hehe

typical dry southeast bias!

For that matter there is an NWS outpost there. State college is the forecast capitol of the USA! NWS says 1.75"-4" inches for Pottstown, they don't really say what type will be falling and this is how much of that type-- more of a "there will be many types and the total will be between this and this and the type changes will be then then and then" What about EPAWA or whatever they call themselves now? Wind picking up now sounds like its Force 3.

Indeed, weirder things have happen... weirder things have happened this year! Remember that overperformer in mid March last year?

Yeah, I think the jackpot will be no more than a 1.5" slopfest in higher elevations (e.g. Huff's Church, Green Lane Outskirts, Hamburg, etc.) everyone else is going to work in a rain slicker and rubberboots. Mesoscale could be over amping too but probably not this early in the season, GFS is the new King of the weenies. Closed upper level lower and Wednesday's in-place-cold gives this threat a shred of credibility.