CIK62

SORRY, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. MADE SCHOOL GIRL ERROR OF USING "NEW" INSTEAD OF "EWR" FOR NEWARK, AND GOT NEW ORLEANS DATA!!!

Newark made it to 82* at 4pm., still 81* there. Even I am at 76* now for the High of the day.

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs., or about 2.5degs. BN. String of 16 BN days broken yesterday. Tomorrow's 75+ may not be equaled till mid-May. Meanwhile one or more lows in the 30's may occur. Firs,t cancel that 75 for tomorrow. GFS OP May 2-18: 55.5 or -5.0 GFS ENS. 50.5 or -10.0. The bottom is about May 10. The last 10 days of May are probably going to have a super +++Rebound or we are going to have the first coldest month ever since Feb. 1934. Who knows, a few days ago Barrow, Alaska set its first daily record low in 13 years! 52* here at 6am. 56* at 9am. 62* by 11am. 70* by 2:15pm. 72* at 3:15pm.

April ended at -2.7[50.4]. The first 8 days of May are averaging 58degs., or 1deg. BN. May 1-17 are averaging 56degs., or about 4.5degs. BN----GFS OP---while the ENS is a ridiculous 49degs., or about 11.5degs. BN!. I am going to have to recalculate that one. Even nuttier, it has Cleveland in the 20's in mid-May! But for the record note>>>>>> MAY NORMAL 62.4 COLDEST 54.3 (-8.1) 10th PLACE 58.4 (-4.0) 54* here at 6am, wet. 57* by 11am. 60* by 1pm. Got to 61* before 4pm with sun shinning, now a Fog and the upper 50's. Worst storm is now (4:15pm) south of Perth Amboy NJ. More misses to the south. T shot up to 67* at 7pm.

Here is a scary thought: With all the makeshift outdoor tent hospitals going up throughout the country and in the City itself are they: 1. Heated for Winter and Air-conditioned for this summer? 2. Can they withstand a quick, unexpected straight-line squall line wind of 70mph? 3. If a hurricane is coming which will wipe these canvas and vinyl villages from the face of the earth and destroy all the equipment and people within-----where exactly are they going to be evacuated to? I once approved two tents for a wedding celebration to be held in Brooklyn Bridge Park in the mid 1990's. The job was filed in May for the party to be held in August. One tent was for the caterer and one for the congregation. They both collapsed during a weekend thunderstorm swarm. No fatalities, but 20 were injured. A lot of food into the river. How about an earthquake in the interim. At any rate, it should be obvious from a month of press conferences that we are BEING FED DEATH--PABLUM STYLE. THE NEXT TEASPOON OF PABLUM WILL BE THAT THE CURVES YOU WERE SHOWN TODAY ARE ONLY FOR WAVE-1. WAVE-2 WILL BE WORSE AND START IN SEPTEMBER.

PEOPLE AT CONEY ISLAND PRACTICING SOCIAL DISTANCING BACK IN THE EARLY 1940'S:

Just two years ago this pattern produced 5.5" of Snow here:

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.