CIK62

FLASH! 12Z GFS shows first 80-Degree Day for the 19th!. Still has some snow near the 12th-13th. It has 14 of the next 17 days up to at least 50. The average T for the period 52*[44/59] .

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs., or about 6degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/53], or about 3degs. AN. 68* on the 16th. is the star. Down to 1" of snow for the 11th-12th. 41* here at 6am. 42* by 9am. 47* by Noon. 51* by 3pm. 53* about 4pm. Down to 44* by 5:30pm.

Don't laugh because the GFS has continually shown snow action for the 11th-12th,, actually for days. Current run is 27" here!!!. Then 5 winter like days follow------all that snow on the ground------you know what that does for the BL. For a six day period it averages just 30degs., about 12degs. BN------where is it tapping the cold air from? Maybe the model is trying to score Brownie Points with the meteorological community---------you know the kind you get on your shoes when you step in it. lol.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 7degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 47*[38/56] or about 5degs. AN. It still insists on snow near the 11th-12th, this time 11". 46* here at 6am. 51* by Noon. 57* by 3:30pm. 58* at 4pm. 51* by 9pm.

GETTING SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER/RAIN/WIND here (Coney Island) at 10:12pm. 53* now.

The next 8 days are averaging 48degs., or about 8degs. AN. The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45degs.[38/52], or about 4degs. AN. It still amazingly has 2" of snow near the 11th-12th. The 12Z update is [39/52] and no snow. For spite, the LR modelling shows a continuous trough for us starting March 21 and going on and on to early May, when the modelling ends. lol. 50* here at 6am. Well 50* seems to have held by me since 5am, now 50* at 8am. 51* at 9am. Sorry, down to 48* by Noon---got to 52* first, however. Spent most of the PM (2:30-4:30) at 46*,47* with rain/fog.

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or 6degs., AN. 40* here at 6am. Was 38* overnight. 42* at 7am. 44* by 9am. 47* at 10am. 48* by Noon. Up steadily to 53* by 8pm. Peaked at 55** at 9:30pm. Because of the outlook for the month, we might as well remember these landmarks: March Normal: 42.5 10th. Place: 46.8, +4.3. 1st. Place: 51.1, +8.6. Now here comes a '06Z, GFS' spitball. The average T for the next 17 days is 38degs., or 3degs. BN with a 20"snowstorm near the 11th---12th. After the 'storm' T averages 32degs.! This is similar to an earlier run that immediately corrected.

The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or 4degs. AN(used 26/40 for today). The first 17 days of March are averaging(06Z,GFS) 43degs., [37/49]or about 2 degs. AN. Slight chances for snow on the 7th. and the 11th. The models should take to rolling Craps, instead of predicting the atmosphere. lol. The next 30 days and next 90 days look super similar to each other with a SE Ridge-Mid Atlantic Ridge and the attendant AN T's east of the Mississippi. In fact the whole NH could have the same thing said about it, except the Polar regions head from BN to just Normal during the next three months, every other anomalous zone stays the same. 27* here at 6am., overnight low was 26*. 30* by 9am. 32* by about 10am. 34* at 11am. 36* at Noon. 38* at 1pm. 43* by 3pm. 46* at 4pm. 42* by 7pm.

12Z, GFS has 25" near the 11th., followed by at least 5 days of mid-winter weather! Sorry, the Ensemble has zilch. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020022912&fh=282

JB now using analogs such as March 1960 and April 1982. I hope he notifies the Mexican government they are going to be buried in another El Chichon like volcanic eruption, considered largely responsible for the April 06 Blizzard that year. More fundamentally, he is trying to pit the coming -EPO against the unfavorable MJO phases, to see which is king.

JB's latest analog is to call up the ghost of the Blizzard of '88 for the 23rd., I guess. He earlier invoked the Blizzard of 1993. He used a score of storms and classic cold outbreaks throughout this winter, hoping to hit the jackpot with one of them. SD pointed out today that stratosphere was cooling and this doomed any Arctic air from ever reaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. The PV would just fade and meld with the rest of the atmosphere-----in other words it would enjoy the natural death it always suffers with the higher elevation of the sun. He called winter off weeks ago, but due to an active Sub-Tropical Jet, was holding open the possibility of an accidental storm. Till now, I suppose. Nothing showing here, just one more dip after Saturday:

Only hope from the EURO Weeklies would be the days in and around Feb. 28---Mar. 08. Remember that even if we had Moscow's January here last month, we would have still have been AN last month. They apparently finished with a 33* Average, when about 15* is normal. Their December 2019 beat our December 2015-----they made it a +14, ours was +13.3.

OK, so when can we start a Topic that roots for (and tracks) a Top Ten Warm Winter to the bloody finish line. AccuWeather again raised the projected T, early in the month, this time for February, to +3 or better. They went up 5 degrees to +6 and came close in January. For the Met Winter we need a +3.1 finish and we are now +3.5+. For the calendar winter we are +7.0 and I do not know what the hottest 90-day period is reckoning from Dec. 22, but it must be similar to the +6.5 warmest ever winter. Another record to explore would be fewest BN Days (for the calendar winter----we might have just 8 to 10 by Feb. 20, if we are lucky. (currently 6)

The CMC is indeed the snowiest in the next 10 day period. 11" in two rounds. 7" Wed. night, then 4" on the 9th. This will melt while still in the program's memory. I do not believe anything happens till PV looms close to us from the 13th-18th. Look for an accident at that time.

Well our turn to colder weather now features 5 50-Degree Days and No Snow for the first two weeks of February(12Z, GFS). Average T is 39degs. for the period, or 6degs. AN. I told you that we should be guessing the number of 50-Degree Days, not the number of inches of snow that will not be accumulating. The MJO sucks, TC's suck and the atmosphere does not know whether it wants to react to a weak El Nino or react to a non-existent La Nina. Any storm will be by accident and not predictable on a coherent basis, well in advance. The PV will rotate away after this period and we will have our old friend the SE Ridge back in town to entertain us. Give me back January already---the SE Ridge does not look so good with a long grey beard.

If you wanna raise your weather prediction verification scores, start predicting how many 50-Degree Days we might have in the next 15, instead of how many inches of snow are not going to accumulate. The PV rearrangement is going to give us dirty cold air that mixes with Pacific air, or never reaches past the EC and out into the Atlantic. Our cold source region is HB. The latest GFS does not even have a BN day it seems. I bet that if matters are not cleared up by the weekend (for what remains of the winter), major EC meteorologists will hold a 'secret' intranet conference or something and just call off the rest of winter. That would allow them to share the blame, however it goes. No more speaking with forked tongue.

2019 Second hottest year ever on a WorldWide basis : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-15/second-hottest-year-on-record-capped-warmest-ever-decade

If only you could have heard JB rant for 15mins. in his Atmospheric Avenger video today, you would know he has been in too many Full Nelsons. Only part of it is acting. The presentation was as clear as a Day 16 Spaghetti Diagram. Besides, when scientists start sounding like lawyers trying to confuse a jury---we are all in trouble.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=roy+orbison+++its+over&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=roy+orbison+its+over&sc=8-20&sk=&cvid=9BBDB2B8169A41C0824BF533C113432E Interesting live version. I am willing to throw my original 45 out the window onto a snow pile, if we get one. Even AccuWeather says any cold will flee quickly. There appear to be two pulses, near NYD and the 6th., then the PV begins to contract from us and who knows when the next cameo appearance will be?

DON'T LET YOUR NAVIGATIONAL MAPS FOOL YOU AND YOUR COMPASS..............GPS apparently would not be affected. "Earth's magnetic north pole is heading for Russia and scientists are puzzled" (Source: CNN, 12/17/19) The north magnetic pole has been slowly moving across the Canadian Arctic toward Russia since 1831, but its swift pace toward Siberia in recent years at a rate of around 34 miles per year has forced scientists to update the World Magnetic Model -- used by civilian navigation systems, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and US and British militaries -- a year ahead of schedule. The World Magnetic Model 2020 forecasts that the pole will continue on its path to Russia, but now the speed is slowly decreasing to about 24.8 miles per year. Since its discovery in 1831, the pole has traveled 1,400 miles. The magnetic field reverses its polarity every several hundred thousand years, where the magnetic north pole resides at the geographic South Pole. The last reversal took place 770,000 years ago. In a new study, researchers discovered that the last field reversal took 22,000 years to complete -- much longer than anticipated or expected, the researchers said. Although some believe reversals could happen over the course of a human life, the findings don't support that theory. Earth's magnetic north pole is hurtling toward Russia Researchers were able to study the reversal by analyzing a global survey of ocean sediments, Antarctic ice cores and lava flows. The details within those samples revealed how Earth's magnetic field has weakened, shifted partially, stabilized and reversed over a million years. "Reversals are generated in the deepest parts of the Earth's interior, but the effects manifest themselves all the way through the Earth and especially at the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere," said Brad Singer, study author and University of Wisconsin-Madison geologist. "Unless you have a complete, accurate and high-resolution record of what a field reversal really is like at the surface of the Earth, it's difficult to even discuss what the mechanics of generating a reversal are." Our planet's magnetic field is created by an interaction between the liquid iron outer core spinning around the solid inner core. When a reversal happens, the normally strong magnetic field weakens. Rock formation acts as a way to track the changes in the magnetic field. Lava flows and sediments record the state of the magnetic field, marking when they were created. Geologists can use the samples like pieces of a puzzle, reconstructing the history of the magnetic field. The record goes back millions of years, but it's the most clear when looking at the last reversal. "Lava flows are ideal recorders of the magnetic field. They have a lot of iron-bearing minerals, and when they cool, they lock in the direction of the field," Singer said. "But it's a spotty record. No volcanoes are erupting continuously. So we're relying on careful field work to identify the right records." 'Ghost particle' found in Antarctica provides astronomy breakthrough Radioisotope dating of lava flows and continuous magnetic readings from the ocean floor and Antarctic ice cores helped recreate a picture of the last reversal for the researchers. Argon can be measured from the lava flows as the radioactive decay of potassium occurs in the rocks, while beryllium can be measured in the ice cores. A weakened magnetic field allows more cosmic radiation from space to strike our atmosphere, which creates more beryllium. The actual reversal took less than 4,000 years -- a drop in the bucket when compared to Earth's timeline so far. But leading up to that reversal were 18,000 years of instability, including two temporary and partial reversals. This is twice as long as expected. The magnetic field decreases in strength about 5% each century and signs of weakening in the field point to an upcoming reversal -- but it's hard to know when that reversal will happen. If a reversal happened during our lifetime, it could impact navigation, satellites and communications. However, the researchers believe that we would have generations to adapt for long periods of instability in the magnetic field. "I've been working on this problem for 25 years," Singer said. "And now we have a richer record and better-dated record of this last reversal than ever before." //end//

EURO WEEKLIES with regard to the WPO, EPO, AO, NAO indexes are -4sd at mid-Jan. on the Control, but the ensemble mean is so-so, near normal. As for the PNA the mean and the Control agree on the blahs. Fast jet stream destroying the Pacific Northwest ridge, would cause this I suppose.

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol