Upstate Tiger

We are now relegated to chasing fantasy rain storms...

If we can make it through the summer, it should turn noticeably wetter late fall. As far as winter. Who knows? 82/83 was not particularly cold by 80s standards but we did have 3 winter storms capped off by the record March snowfall. 97/98 was warm with virtually no winter weather but lots of severe. 15/16 we did have the one good snow in January. Oddly, I don’t remember much else about that winter. Edit: Forgot about 22/23. I remember the really cold Christmas when we got down to 5 degrees IMBY but no other winter weather that winter.

Yes, chances for Super El Nino are increasing. The last one was 15/16. If this holds, it could be a hot and dry summer in the south. Very concerning...

Got .25 in the showers yesterday. Another .15 overnight. Looks like some good showers to our west. We might get to an inch. Not a drought buster for sure but will give the farmers and my yard a little relief. Happy Easter SE friends!

I had hope that the cold front on Friday would at least bring some showers but it is looking more and more anemic.

Boy does the Piedmont look dry over the next 2 weeks. We need some rain!

Interesting read on the ENSO transition underway and downstream impacts. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2026-forecast-update-polar-vortex-core-el-nino-rising-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

11" IMBY is good even by 1970's standards so I will have to go with A+.

Impressive!

You’ll have to give us a seasonal update tomorrow.

The 06Z GFS shows some post St. Pattrick's Day snow for the SC coast . That would cause some confusion for those who celebrated a little late the night before. They would wake up thinking they slept through spring, summer, and fall.

Why? She smells like a blooming Bradford Pear tree, is covered in an obnoxious yellow powder, draws flies, and can’t make her mind up from one day to the next.

Looks like we could see some lows in the mid to upper 20's here in the NC piedmont next week. That will at least temporarily unalive some of these early insect hatchers.

Received my first misquito bite of the season on the golf course Sunday. Got me on the calf before I could swat it away. Guess from now until November I will need to be all sprayed up...

Weekend looking great! It's a good thing too, as Monday looks miserable...

Just like clock work...

Looks like cart path only again this weekend but will take the rain.

966 is amazing. Check this out. Tells you all you need to know.

Someone on the NYC forum posted this is there second 50" plus winter this decade and there were only 2 50" plus winters in the 70's. Kind of surprising for those of us who lived through those cold 70's winters. Of course I could argue that this winter IMBY with 11" from 2 events would be up there with the really good winters of the 70's and 80's in the upstate in terms of seasonal snowfall. A quick check of GSP snowfall records confirms this... The only difference would be below average temp. winters were more common and the winter storms impacted larger areas of the SE when they did occur. I still think there is opportunity for another SE winter storm before mid March.

NYC is going to be over 50" with a real shot at over 60" by the end of the month looking at the GFS. Not sure what the Euro shows as I no longer waste my time looking at it ...

967 MB bomb off the Jersey shore tomorrow. One of the Mets said that’s a cat 2 in hurricane season.

Pretty cool from the NYC forum NWS AFD. Fun reading the MA and NY forums right now. While the latest 12z GFS is now lower with QPF and more in line with the Canadian and ECMWF, these global models are struggling with banding. Current forecast QPF and Snow Amounts remained similar to previous forecast which is more in line with hi res/HREF guidance. Snow amount was derived using similar snow ratios to the previous forecast. Much of the guidance including the NBM appears to be too high. This was mannualy adjusted down to 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by late tonight into daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. Using these ratios with generally 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF across the interior and 1.75 to 2.00 inches along the coast resulted in a swath of about 20 to 24 inches of snow for NYC and Long Island and 16 to 20 inches elsewhere. While this is the expected amount, a few isolated readings of 30 inches are possible in the heaviest banding, mainly along the coast.

Yeah I don’t understand why the Euro has consistently been too dry with most systems this winter even when it’s surface is similar to other wetter models.

With the last storm the GFS and CMC did the best for our area. The Euro was always a bit dry.

Euro says "no bueno." Still time though for the MA.