Upstate Tiger

Heard my first katydid this morning. Always reminds me of my grandmother. Like a lot of mountain people, she was always reciting folklore. One of them was that 16 weeks from the first katydid singing in the mountains of SC would be the first frost. It actually always works out pretty close…

So we have officially entered El Niño phase. Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño. The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878. It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877. The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US. Farmers actually planted in February. This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.

What an awesome day! Felt almost cool in the shade with the breeze. Probably the last day like this until September.

Wasn’t this the feature that nearly wrecked our 1/31 winter storm because it interrupted the gulf moisture transport?

Maybe we can get that back surgery dude to start the thread

My rain chances for tonight and tomorrow are falling like cheap lard. My yard is brown and crunchy.

Who would like to start the thread? On a more serious note, April 27 is the 15 year annivesary of the 2011 SE Super Outbreak....

I was in between 6-7 grades. Didn’t bother to go back and look at records but I do remember the family’s annual Myrtle Beach trip first week of June. Everyone was commenting on how unusual it was to be in the 90s. Don’t remember much about the rest of the summer except a lot of Boston, Frampton, Marshall Tucker, and Jimmy Buffet.

And no sign of a breakdown in this pattern for the next 2 weeks. It's one thing to experience summer onset drought after planting and growing season but during planrting and growing season is disastrous. Feel for the farmers in my area...

We are now relegated to chasing fantasy rain storms...

If we can make it through the summer, it should turn noticeably wetter late fall. As far as winter. Who knows? 82/83 was not particularly cold by 80s standards but we did have 3 winter storms capped off by the record March snowfall. 97/98 was warm with virtually no winter weather but lots of severe. 15/16 we did have the one good snow in January. Oddly, I don’t remember much else about that winter. Edit: Forgot about 22/23. I remember the really cold Christmas when we got down to 5 degrees IMBY but no other winter weather that winter.

Yes, chances for Super El Nino are increasing. The last one was 15/16. If this holds, it could be a hot and dry summer in the south. Very concerning...

Got .25 in the showers yesterday. Another .15 overnight. Looks like some good showers to our west. We might get to an inch. Not a drought buster for sure but will give the farmers and my yard a little relief. Happy Easter SE friends!

I had hope that the cold front on Friday would at least bring some showers but it is looking more and more anemic.

Boy does the Piedmont look dry over the next 2 weeks. We need some rain!

Interesting read on the ENSO transition underway and downstream impacts. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2026-forecast-update-polar-vortex-core-el-nino-rising-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

11" IMBY is good even by 1970's standards so I will have to go with A+.

Impressive!

You’ll have to give us a seasonal update tomorrow.

The 06Z GFS shows some post St. Pattrick's Day snow for the SC coast . That would cause some confusion for those who celebrated a little late the night before. They would wake up thinking they slept through spring, summer, and fall.

Why? She smells like a blooming Bradford Pear tree, is covered in an obnoxious yellow powder, draws flies, and can’t make her mind up from one day to the next.

Looks like we could see some lows in the mid to upper 20's here in the NC piedmont next week. That will at least temporarily unalive some of these early insect hatchers.

Received my first misquito bite of the season on the golf course Sunday. Got me on the calf before I could swat it away. Guess from now until November I will need to be all sprayed up...

Weekend looking great! It's a good thing too, as Monday looks miserable...

Just like clock work...