Upstate Tiger
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Everything posted by Upstate Tiger
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After a slight moderation leading into Christmas weeek, the 06Z GFS drops the arctic hammer across the U.S.
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18z GFS not far from something good next Sunday/Monday.
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42/37 here. Needed to be about 5 degrees colder and DP in the 20s and we would have been in business.
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He ain't lyin.
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I think that is a good summary. I see the relaxation mid month also showing up on all the models. Kinda stinks as the wife and I will be in the moutains for our annual pre-Christmas trip the 14-18. Of course, this week's warmup never materialized so who knows what will happen in 2 weeks. One thing seems certain, there will some super cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. That's always the first thing I look for...
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Well I don’t dislike him but I can’t say he makes me excited.
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Nice to finally have a reason to watch December models. Been awhile.
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Agree. Haven't had a chance to look at anything but the 12Z GFS today but the last few panels on the long range look pretty good to me.
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Unless it’s playing the B1G. Hopefully we see a big midwestern OL steamroll that ridge in a couple of weeks.
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It's always seemed to me looking at the extended that we would cool down briefly after Thankgiving and then warm back up the first week of December then potentially turn much colder by the second week of December. There are some good signals. We shall see...
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Lots of cold air finally filling up Western Canada. Does not always mean it comes into the SE as we've seen the last few years but for any chance at BN, Canada has to be super cold. Hopefully that ridge can get tamped down and the trough axis moves east with time.
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Felt like an Edmund Fitzgerald day driving home. Grey with a howling NE wind. Obviously nothing like the 978mb bomb that sank the Fitz with 86 mph winds and 30 foot seas. Played Gordon Lighfoot in honor of the 29 souls lost 50 years ago today.
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Grey and blustery in West Lincoln. Temp 37 with wind chill of 20 and Virga storm on top of us for last hour.
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After the warmup both GFS and Euro remarkably both show a strong cold front traversing the country in a couple of weeks.
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Hopefully this is a track and pattern that lasts through the winter
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I can work with that!
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Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.
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Next weekend looks nice with highs in the 60s. Looking forward to it.
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Finally seeing some colder air making its way into the US and eventually SE by the first and second weeks of October. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sfct_anom-imp
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Kids will need a light jacket in the mornings midweek.
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Starting to see snowfall pop up on the long range GFS along the northern border states. Also seeing a gulf hurricane showing up pretty consistenly at two weeks. Would love to see a nice hurricane free fall this year!
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Headed to the coast next weekend. It sure seems Erin nudges closer to the coast with each GFS and Euro run. Haven't seen any forecasters predicting landfall but some have said we could experience some outter bands.
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Picked up 2.3" last evening of welcomed rain. Lightening was very intenses but very little wind and no hail. Power flickered several times but never went completely off...
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Not a forecast endorsement but interesting reading for a hot afternoon. Provides education on the complicated relationship of winter teleconnections. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/
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As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out. Looks to stay neutral into the fall. Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
