My personal opinion is that there are forces at work from both sides of the coin. AGW doing it's thing on warming (3.7 w/m² for doubling of CO2) but the "sun" and "GSM" doing it's thing on trying to cool the planet (decrease TSI (very minor), cosmic rays and the relationship to cloud cover and rain and increased volcanic activity). Question is though, by how much? If there was no AGW warming at all, what would the average global temperature be at this point in time?
On the flip side, whatever the issue is, we still have to shy away from fossil fuels. For the simple reasons of pollution and dependency. Even if AWG did not exist, fossil fuels will run out and that in itself would be catastrophic if we do not start our process of going to renewable energy sources now.