hawkeye_wx

12z Euro

All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning.  The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa.

Here's the Canadian.

GFS is pretty messy.

There are reports of 5" of snow from just east of Cedar Rapids last night where a small pocket of heavy snow sat for a couple hours.

The Euro has something on the 12th.

Now there is an 8" report.  Dang.

Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there.  Models handled this system poorly.  Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere.  The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.

48 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow.

Looks like an inch or so is possible here.  

It's not looking as favorable here now.  The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area.  We may end up with only an inch.

It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here.

Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening.

Jan 6/7 system on the 12z Euro

Euro.... this run has better interaction between the lead, moist, wave and the upper energy diving in from Iowa.

12z Euro - End of week system.  It's there, but not exceptionally organized.

1.09" of rain here.

Cyclone is getting some nice rain this morning as a heavier batch tracks through the QC area.  Barely anything here.

UK is really going nuts with the secondary energy as well.

Update: 00z Euro is 10 mb weaker than the UK.

My memory sucks, so I really don't remember a lot of weather events from past years.  However, here are a few I remember.

January-February 2019:  Snowiest 5-week period on record (44")

Late January 2019:  Record cold (-30º at the airport)

Winter of 2013-14: I remember it being brutally cold after several snow events.

Groundhog Day storm and another GHD/Superbowl storm earlier in the decade.  They weren't huge storms here, but it's about the best we can do.

Morch and the severe drought (2012?)

It was a generally wet decade.  June was an incredibly wet month this decade.

The entire decade produced only TWO 10" snowstorms.  That's it.  This is the ultimate nickel & dimer climate.  It's not that difficult for storms to produce 10" of snow, but here it certainly is.

Cedar Rapids also has a decent shot at 60º today.

Moline just hit 60º.

I'd take a repeat of last winter.  December was blah and the first week of January was a blowtorch, but then the hammer dropped and we had the snowiest five week period on record.  Winter ended after those five weeks, but it was an amazing period.

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

zzzzz...

Yikes!  That's pretty awful.  Positive everything, MJO looping right back into the warm phases.  Let's hope not.

12z Euro.... boom

Latest three 12z Euro runs.... total cave.

The other models are now caving to the GFS... the euro overnight and the ICON, Canadian, and UK this morning.

Of course, the Euro decides to shake things up tonight.

Here is the shift from last night's run to tonight's for the end of the month.