hawkeye_wx

12z GFS is a bit colder initially, but still ends up far enough north to bring light rain to my area.  The 12z Canadian is like the 00z Euro, keeping my area in snow throughout.

Whoa!  00z Euro is much colder aloft late in the week.

If we get any snow out of this, it'll probably last five minutes before changing to sleet and freezing rain.  Northern Iowa into MN/WI is a much more favorable area.

Even tonight's minor system was a dud here in Cedar Rapids.  I only picked up 0.7".

This is the latest HRRR for wave 2.  Yikes!

With wave 2 going weak and east, it appears my snow total from this dud will be a measly 1".  

00z Euro

It looks like I only got about an inch out of this.

16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nightmare scenario for this area.  Narrow miss just northwest tonight, and mostly a miss southeast tomorrow.  

EDIT:  GFS basically shows the same. 

Yep.  We needed a few things to go right, but instead they all went wrong.  Oh well.  At least it was interesting to follow for a week.  Maybe we'll have better fortune over the next month.

The snow/sleet line is on top of Cedar Rapids at the moment.  The far north side is getting all snow while I am still all sleet.

1 hour ago, Natester said:

Very little ice accretion on trees and powerlines.  Freezing rain might linger for a couple more hours although it's predominantly sleet right now.

I'm a couple miles west of downtown Cedar Rapids and it has been raining here for quite a while.  I certainly wasn't expecting 4+ hours of freezing rain.  There are a few pingers, but it's mostly rain.  Everything is glazed in ice and icicles are dangling from things like the bird feeder.

I'm curious why the CAMs (nam/hrrr) are so much farther nw with the wave 2 defo zone than the globals.

Now the ICON has gone back nw a bit and stronger with wave 2.

This is a difficult forecast for my area as well.  Models are trending nw a bit with the snow/sleet line this evening and overnight.  Frankly, it's looking like Cedar Rapids may end up with a bunch of sleet, which sucks.

Regarding wave #2, while the globals have trended southeast, the CAMs continue to insist on a farther nw track of the deformation zone, right through Iowa.

My guess is I will get very little snow tonight and maybe 2-3" tomorrow.

Jeez, models.

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

We're all aware that the CMC shifted south right? It's also weak sauce but thought I'd say something

Southeast and weak with wave 2, yes, but also juiced and nw with wave 1.  It actually has Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting nothing as the waves split the area.

The GFS has finally juiced up wave #1, joining the other models.

Cedar Rapids has hit 57º this afternoon.

22 minutes ago, madwx said:

NAM going big league in IA/S WI with the first wave, 4-5" +

The HRRR is also robust with wave #1.  Some models have certainly been showing a brief shot of snow (1-3") in part of Iowa, but this several-inches thing is new, so I'm not sure how much to believe it.

Woulda been nice to get a solid consensus this morning instead of more spread.

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

GEM is big on the ice for your area though.

Yeah, I forgot about the first wave.  That's a bit of a mystery, though.  A couple models have nothing here from the first wave while the Canadian and Euro show a decent slug of precip passing through.

12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker.  Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa.  My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS.

For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM.

We are about 35º warmer than at the same time yesterday morning.

I did not realize until now that our temp Saturday will be that low.  Dry snow and strong wind will make it tough to measure.

00z Euro