hawkeye_wx

12z Euro

The GFS just doesn't want to budge from the mostly-rain event.

3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Have to admit I am skeptical of some snow event lasting 60hrs. And the NAM at this range whatever it shows is toss worthy.

I'm sure there will be some breaks.  Other models are showing a decent break after the initial wave.  Plus, the rotating spokes of energy will probably have dry moats mixed in.

At the end of the NAM run, there is still solid snow falling from Cedar Rapids to Chicago/Milwaukee.

The last snow system lasted four hours.  This week's event has the potential to last 60 hours.  Now, if we could just pair the 1"/hr rates from the last event with the 48+ hour duration of this one, we'd really have something.

The Iowa NWS offices are not excited about this long-duration system at all.  They seem to be leaning toward the warmer/rainy GFS.

The sleet over here has changed to freezing rain.  There's a nice glaze on top of the snow/sleet.

My snow total is 4.5".... a solid event.  It's too bad we can't get those rates for longer than a few hours.

The mix is surging northeast in Iowa.  Des Moines and Ottumwa reported freezing rain at 4pm and it's very easy to see the switch line on nexrad CC.  I just hope we can cross 5" before the switch occurs.

Another 1.3" last hour, up to 3.9" total.

Radar returns are generally weaker and not as solid to the west, but we could hit 5".

1" in the last hour puts my 3pm total at 2.6".

The back edge is already approaching , but we should get another couple hours of good snow.

I've picked up 0.7" in the last 25 minutes, so my rate is about 1.5"/hr.  If there's anything to complain about, the flakes are very small.

I picked up 0.6" in the first hour.  Solid heavier returns have moved over Cedar Rapids, so I expect the rate will increase to 1"/hr.  The visibility has dropped just in the last five minutes.

It's looking good for 3-5" in Cedar Rapids.  The snow has quickly intensified here in the last twenty minutes.

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

Jesus Christ, people, can we please get back on topic?  One person mentions JB and we get twenty f'n posts shi**ing on him.  Enough!

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

#1 CIPS analog is 12/1/2007.  Was in LAF back then but remember that storm.  One difference is that the warm nose aloft back then was stronger/farther north, so the ice won't get as far north this time. 

I received 1.5" of sleet and no snow from that storm.  Thankfully, tomorrow's system won't be a repeat.

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Currently leaning toward 2-3" on the front end here.  If it comes in under that, then this winter truly does suck.  Even the above total would pretty much make it my biggest snow of the season... pretty sad.

2-3" is what I'm expecting here as well.

Euro is looking more like the GFS now.  Is the GFS really going to win again?  It already did best for the last two bigger events.

12z GFS about the same, good for MN to central WI, lousy for central Iowa to Chicago.

28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

00z GFS is not what you want to see for a good event...except for MN, central and northern WI, the UP and northern Lower MI.

The GFS, today, has trended toward sharper upper energy, which causes the surface feature to extend up into Minnesota.  It seems a bit weird.  The other models are not doing this.  Any thoughts?

Euro coming in with a stronger low and a bit less cold again, although still cold enough to give my area a nice thump.

12z GFS is a bit colder initially, but still ends up far enough north to bring light rain to my area.  The 12z Canadian is like the 00z Euro, keeping my area in snow throughout.

Whoa!  00z Euro is much colder aloft late in the week.

If we get any snow out of this, it'll probably last five minutes before changing to sleet and freezing rain.  Northern Iowa into MN/WI is a much more favorable area.

Even tonight's minor system was a dud here in Cedar Rapids.  I only picked up 0.7".