hawkeye_wx

Considering the time of year and how very wet it is over here, I doubt we'll see 90 again.

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like DVN confirmed an EF-1 on the west side of Cedar Rapids.  IIRC that storm wasn't tornado or severe warned.

This was pretty darn close to my house, 0.7 miles to my nw.  I guess it's a good thing this cell veered north a bit as it approached.

None of that Iowa precip is from Gordon.  However, the euro is still trying to stall a band of heavy rain from southern Iowa to the Quad Cities area Wednesday into Thursday.

The upper midwest/great lakes ridging keeps strengthening on the models and is squashing the tropical remants... disappointing.  It appears whatever we can get from Wednesday's frontal passage may be it for the week.... a major change from a few days ago.

Tonight's GFS shifted south again with Gordon's remnants and the Canadian shifted well south.

Wow, great job!

A strong cell passed over the nw side of Cedar Rapids this evening.  It barely missed me as it veered a bit more to the north as it approached, but about a mile north of my house there are reports of a bit of tree and power line damage.

Confirmed tornado near Vinton, nw of Cedar Rapids.

8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

after this evening activity...it looks like round 4 is setting up over NE into MN and WI

you can tell the flow is pushing west by the new cells in Kansas moving NNW

 

WPC still has 5 inch amounts beat focused a little more S into  MO and IL

 

18z NAM continues with the push of the cold front through IA weds-thursday....

 

Yeah, the trend has been to sag the mid to late-week heavy rain south, with less heavy stuff here.

I'm thinking the eye-like feature may be mostly aloft.  The rest of the core on radar just doesn't really match up with that kind of intensity, and neither does the satellite presentation.  There's also a buoy near the coast just north of the center and it still says 1014 mb.

I'm hoping Gordon's remnants can get up to Iowa.  We obviously don't need the rain, but it's a rare occurrence for this area.  They almost always veer east before reaching Iowa.

The euro continues to be extremely bullish with the rain through the entire week.  While the GFS, and even the Canadian, have been hinting the rain may be swept away to the east and south as early as Wednesday night, the euro keeps an upper disturbance parked over NE/KS/IA, which pumps high moisture into Iowa like a conveyor.  Today's 12z run has widespread 5-12 inches of rain across the state through Saturday.

The first two nights of storms and heavy rain have really dumped on some areas, but Cedar Rapids has been stuck in the dry hole, just downstream of the heavy storms, both nights.  I was only able to get 0.12" last night.

No 90s in Cedar Rapids in August.

14 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm actually getting a bit worried about the first round.  Tonight was going to be our first big night, but the latest 3k nam and hrrr show nothing here.  They have convection blowing up over sw Iowa, which would then move east and southeast, leaving us dry.  Heck, the 3k nam also has nothing Saturday night.

Well, we certainly didn't end up dry as a big MCS plowed across Iowa.  However, I did kinda get screwed and ended up in a dry pocket when the backbuilding back edge stalled to the west and stuck Cedar Rapids in lighter rain.  I picked up 0.87" once the storms morphed into a steady rain shield.  Even now, the back edge is trying to re-energize and miss north.

I'm actually getting a bit worried about the first round.  Tonight was going to be our first big night, but the latest 3k nam and hrrr show nothing here.  They have convection blowing up over sw Iowa, which would then move east and southeast, leaving us dry.  Heck, the 3k nam also has nothing Saturday night.

6 hours ago, hlcater said:

I hate September. If the tropics aren’t super active, it’s 30 days of zzzzzzzzzzzz. Least favorite month easily. 

Well, the first half of this September certainly shouldn't be zzzzz around here.  There should be good storm action nearly every day in the region.

The models have become extremely active over the next couple weeks as the front just keeps waving north and south.  The euro is putting out big rainfall across the upper midwest.

The line of storms that moved through here this evening was fairly tame.  I picked up a half inch of rain, with very little wind, and some decent lightning on the back edge.  All the real action was in the Iowa City area.  I'm over 7 inches of rain for the month.

Cyclone is back!

The euro continues to try to develop something in the Bahamas/Gulf early next week.

The southern crap in Iowa probably ruined it for my area today.  Light showers and thick clouds put the kibosh on our instability.  HRRR runs all day have kept the heavy stuff mostly north and south.  The sun is poking out ahead of the sw IA broken line, so perhaps that can surge into this area later.

Yeah, it's been over a month since cyclone posted.  I messaged him a few days ago, but he hasn't responded.  His weather station is still live on Wunderground, so I'm guessing this summer's boring weather got to him and/or he has other more important stuff going on.

Several downpours today dumped a total of 2.35" on my yard.  It's my heaviest one-day rain event of the year.

This system's deformation band has dumped 8-10 inches of rain near the Missouri river in the Omaha area over the last thirty hours.  Scattered cells around here are dumping pretty heavy rain, but they've been too brief.  I got a quick half inch first thing this morning, but reaching an inch has been more of a struggle than I expected.