hawkeye_wx

I sure wish we didn't have to wait until evening for the next recon measurements.  The eye has popped and cleared very quickly, with a very intense ring around it.

The eye has shown significant motion toward the nw the last couple hours.  Wobble or not, that could put the worst on the northern coast of Dominica rather than the sw, where the capital is.  Most of Guadeloupe's population is in the central to north part of the island(s), but there is also a decent population center on the sw corner, which could take a big hit if Maria tracks far enough north.  Worst case would be the eye tracking into the middle of Guadeloupe, but that's probably too far north.

6 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So the GFS has shifted West quite a bit, approaching Outer Banks at 210 hours. 

Yeah, the 12z run made a couple adjustments with Jose's future.  First, it takes it a little farther east after the turn, which puts a bit more distance between Jose and Maria.  Then, it weakens Jose to nothing and rebuilds the ridge before Maria can escape.

This run ends up turning Maria away from the coast just before landfall, but this is beyond day 7, which means the GFS has no idea what the pattern will be then.

5 mb is a huge drop in just the last 100 or so minutes since the last pass.

Update:  A 31 kt wind at the surface means the pressure is actually 959 mb.... very rapid fall.

Maria easily shook off the morning convective hiccup and is currently producing very intense convection around the eye.  If this continues all night, I would think the morning recon plane will find the pressure down at least ten millibars.

While earlier it appeared Guadeloupe would be the target, it is now looking more likely Dominica will be hit.  The latest euro and gfs both track over Dominica and Radar this evening shows the eye moving barely north of due west.

Maria's eye has entered Martinique's radar view.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

The zoomed-in, GOES-16 one-minute image visible loop(awesome) shows deep convection continuing to bubble up on the north and west sides of the center.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=100&loop_speed_ms=80

Second recon pass found 984 mb, but still sub-cane wind.

The dry air has really gotten to Maria this morning.  The core convection has collapsed.

The NHC mentions the current, temporary, issue with the core in the 11am disco.

The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
There appears to be a dry slot working into the western side of
Maria, and the low-level circulation seems to be peaking out from
under the western side of a persistent CDO feature.

While current conditions are pretty good for Maria, sufficient for gradual strengthening, they are not perfect.  The western half of the core has been lacking convection this morning.  The core convection, rather than pinwheeling around the center, looks a bit like it is chasing the center.  I suppose this will improve as the system slows a bit.

Obviously, the models will continue to flop around with Jose's future several days out, but tonight's euro is the first model run that shows a scenario in which Maria can still hit the US even if Jose gets blocked and meanders along the US coast.  Jose would have to sit over the cold water and die out.

It's worth noting that the central islands are much more populous than the northernmost islands Irma trashed.  Barbuda and Tortola were home to 1600 and 23,000, respectively, while Guadeloupe, Dominica, and Martinique are home to 405,000, 73,000, and 386,000.  A major cane directly hitting Guadeloupe, which is currently along the forecast track, would be a severe blow.

Boy, the models just can't decide what Jose is going to do, which means they also don't know what Maria will eventually do.  Last night's euro swept Jose up and away, opening the door for Maria.  The 12z once again has Jose stalling and drifting south, eventually grabbing Maria and pulling it out to sea with it.

4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Held off just long enough to witness complete totality, which lasted about 1:30 seconds in and of itself. Clouds moving in now, but I couldn't care less. I saw what I came to see and it was breathtaking.

Excellent!  I didn't think it would work out for you.

Jim Cantore in Carbondale and Jen Carfagno in Nashville, both had totality ruined by fair weather clouds.  Even if the weather is great, you still have to get lucky.

5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Drove 20 min west, south of Hamilton, MO and have a good view. Got some thin cirrus clouds, but sun is shining through. Got to a good spot with no time to spare.

Thick clouds appear to be moving in from the sw, though.

17 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I'm in a tear, west or south... 

If you're near Chillicothe, per your last post, you're in a tough spot.  You don't have time to drive far in either direction.  Clouds over ne KS are thickening/expanding and moving ne, so I don't think driving west would do you much good.  There's a break in the cloud canopy east of KC.

The weather across Iowa is looking increasingly bad Monday, with a good chance of showers and storms, and certainly clouds.  It would be pretty frustrating if the path of totality passed through here, especially considering much of the month has been sunny and dry.

I hope the Missouri watchers can avoid the cloud debris.

10 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Guys good high resolution visible satellite links?  That can be zoomed up on?  Need to see clouds in high detail.....provided there's an actual cell service lol

and looped too

The NASA site also has GOES 16 images/loops.  Unlike COD, NASA lets you zoom in to any location. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html

I've thought about going to central Missouri.  It's certainly an interesting event, but I doubt I'll be excited enough to want to drive for 4.5 hours to see a 3 minute eclipse, then drive 4.5 hours back.  We'll see.

A system is developing in the Bay of Bengal.  Models have a solid cyclone lifting northward into Bangladesh or western Myanmar Tuesday.

It appears another eyewall replacement cycle may be on the way.  Satellite shows the eye steadily shrinking over the last few hours, and a microwave image from an hour ago shows a distinct outer band.

Josh (iCyclone) is headed to the Philippines to chase Haima.  The eastern coastal region of Luzon is nothing but mountains and dense rain forest, though, so not ideal for chasing.

That was a very smooth eyewall replacement cycle.  It reminds me of Katrina's ERC.

Satellite suggests, and microwave confirms, a concentric eyewall structure.