hawkeye_wx

17 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Does anyone know if the Iowa State feed is down? BUFKIT data is from 7/18 when I grab data...

The ISU mesonet site has been down since about noon.

Last week, the euro was suggesting we could get a 9-day stretch of 90+, with a few days of 100 possible.  Here we are at Wednesday of the following week and we haven't even started the heat wave.  The Cedar Rapids airport has only hit 90º once, three days ago.  We should certainly reach the 90s the next three days.

The SPC is expecting the MCS to possibly strengthen this afternoon as central and eastern Iowa heat up and destabilize.

Yeah, the CAMs insisted the morning MCS would crap out as it entered nw Iowa.  So far it is holding together very well.

A surprise cluster of cells this evening converged on Cedar Rapids and dumped a MUCH-needed 1.53" of rain on my yard.  The first inch fell in only 18 minutes.

Euro still showing 100+ for Chicagoland later next week.

I didn't think that was a possibility this summer given how wet the region was coming out of spring, but the ground has really dried out.

Last night's op euro has 100º here from day 7-10... with zero rain through day 10.  

I picked up 0.07" of rain from a tiny cell late this afternoon.  My July total is now 0.17".  Models show little if any rain over the next ten days.  The lawns are going to dry up, big time.

We could use some rain.  I've only received 0.10" this month.  The models don't look great for Iowa over the next 7-10 days.

Two straight days I've been missed by the frustratingly-pulse'y storms.

I picked up 0.48" of rain from the line this evening.

I will finish June with 3.76" (avg is 4.9").

9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Nice little MCS here in CR. Had numerous 50-60mph wind gusts as the gust front passed through.

Same here.  I was outside taking a hummingbird feeder down when the gust front hit.  I just held on.

Upper 70s dews over here in Iowa even though the corn is still short and the beans are just popping up.

44 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This MCS has an impressively dense canopy and combined with a cold pool that’s still well in place, we might struggle to reach posted highs 88-90. It’s still only 68 at noon.

Yeah, this MCS really put the kibosh on the hot and humid day across Iowa.  Even the Ames/Des Moines area, which received no rain, are firmly within the cold pool and stuck in the 70s.

The HRRR can be a good model, but it appears to be terrible with these low-shear, cold-pool-driven MCSs.  The model struggles to see them and refuses to keep them going beyond the first couple hours of each run.

The line of storms had a little flare-up just west of CR and it moved in just quick enough to beat the subsidence racing in from the north, so I picked up 0.34" of rain and got some lightning and thunder.

Morning line of storms diving south through Iowa just crapped out as it approached Cedar Rapids.  It's a pretty classic scenario in which the western part of the line remains strong and back-builds into the instability while the eastern part gusts out.  It just hasn't been our month, getting missed in every direction.  We may finish June nearly 2 inches below avg.  Rochester, MN just got nearly 5 inches of rain overnight.  I've received 3 inches all month.

The dewpoint here is up to 74º, the highest so far this season.

It's still unknown how tonight's MCS will pan out.  There is currently more action dipping into Iowa than models predicted, which could benefit my area tonight.

0.30" overnight.  MO/KS and points south are gobbling up much of the good MCS action.

It's 10-15 degrees cooler (both temp and dew) than models predicted a few days ago.

I like DST.

0.53" of rain today as we, once again, got stuck under the general rain shield on the north side of the MCS.  This has been the theme this spring/summer.

The slow-moving disturbance today has kept this area in the mid 60s, so it has been pretty cool.  Models had been showing the dewpoint rising into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, but that now looks unlikely.  The euro is now showing mid to upper 60s, with temps only in the 70s.  For the most part, if we want summer heat and storms this year, we have to go south.

The euro also has mid to upper 70s dews on Saturday.  It has been so pleasant for much of this month, that will be quite a slap in the face.

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

bring it

And the very next run has the MCS tracking from Missouri to the Ohio Valley.

1.05" of rain in my yard this evening, our first good rainfall this month.  We still haven't had anything very strong this year.  DVN issued a warning this evening, but it was not necessary.