mahantango#1

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

from NWS this morning: The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing, elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute impacts.

Is it me or is anybody else noticing that the snow cover is getting less, but I don't see any puddles or runoff. It just seems to be evaporating.

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

Is there any other model support for Sunday? We need an February 1983 repeat

NWS kept updating the amounts during the storm.

I think Harrisburg had that too if my memory serves me correct.

I remember this storm very well. Original forecast was 1-3 than 2-4 till it was all set an done i received 18 inches. I think Harrisburg got 24 inches. There was Thunder and lightning during the storm. February 10-12th, 1983: Called the “Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm,” this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall of up to 25 inches fell in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities.

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine

Wind now gusting to 34mph.

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

Capital Weather Gang Favorites ·onpoeSdtsr2u4l317cuu6t2aig97mmcu7hccu0uug23m88mtufh416121th5 · * An extreme winter in D.C. — the harshest in at least a decade * The Midwest Regional Climate Center tracks seasonal harshness using the Accumulated Winter Severity Index, which accounts for both the intensity and longevity of cold and snow. So far this winter, D.C.’s rating on the 0–5 scale: 5 — Extreme. That’s the highest rating here in the past 10 years. Even if the rest of winter turns mild, the damage is done. Based on what we’ve already endured, the season is locked in at at least a 4 — Severe.

I guess if it verified it would be a heavy wet snow.