mahantango#1

You have to a long talk with mother nature again as it is cloudy all day again. You have to stress to her we need sunshine

Wind now gusting to 34mph.

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

Capital Weather Gang Favorites ·onpoeSdtsr2u4l317cuu6t2aig97mmcu7hccu0uug23m88mtufh416121th5 · * An extreme winter in D.C. — the harshest in at least a decade * The Midwest Regional Climate Center tracks seasonal harshness using the Accumulated Winter Severity Index, which accounts for both the intensity and longevity of cold and snow. So far this winter, D.C.’s rating on the 0–5 scale: 5 — Extreme. That’s the highest rating here in the past 10 years. Even if the rest of winter turns mild, the damage is done. Based on what we’ve already endured, the season is locked in at at least a 4 — Severe.

I guess if it verified it would be a heavy wet snow.

Mark Margavage snrteoSodpc56184g68hfgu24988l1al14mc584h0h8mhfh2m0t7l7a1i151 · Weekend Storm Update Despite what you might have heard…I am STILL tracking the potential for a significant snow event this weekend. If it happens, the snow would arrive Sunday afternoon/evening. Model Guidance has been all over the place but I’ve been fairly consistent with my message: This looks like a Miller B Nor’Easter. Miller B storms typically have a mix line that sets up along I-78/I-80 in eastern PA and NJ. The European Model suggests that mix changes over to heavy snow as this storm strengthens. Whether or not that actually happens is pure speculation at this point. There are some non-linear processes that need to go exactly correct for this storm to produce significant snow. If not, the storm could miss off to the south. So nothing is set in stone yet, but the threat remains. ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage

Theres still time to score, no need for the hail-mary...yet.

I know, seems they are really downplaying the event this morn.

NWS will tend to disagree with you.

Were in the middle of a heatwave!

Decided to walk down to the creek and take some pictures while there still ice on the creek. That was the easy part. What wasn't easy was walking through that snowpack. Cardio workout for sure was not anticipated. I wonder just how thick the ice is? Questions remain. How long will the ice stay with warmer temperatures forecast? Will the ice slowly melt away? Will we get more snow adding to more water content to the snowpack? Or will we get a big sudden thaw with a huge rain storm? And then will we get the ice breaking up and producing ice jams and flooding? These questions will be answered in the coming weeks.

I have now lowered my confidence in them as they have increased confidence in lowering confidence.

Some tv mets. are writing the storm off.