mahantango#1

Wxrisk.com NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome. When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast. I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here. In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models. That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours. Why does that happen ? As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there. For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010. The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly. With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical

17 this morning.

I think even JB seemed to throw the towel in too. At least were not down to the 2 minute warning with no timeouts left and down by 7 points.

Might as well Stick a fork in this one:

And just like that sun came back out temp above freezing, snow disappeared.

Nice snow squall here. Temp dropped below freezing grass turned white with 48mph wind gusts.

You had more on Friday .02 more.

I see looks like CTP already changed. Starting Jan 12 at 12pm, we’re transitioning our Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) to a "Key Message" format. This impacts-first approach streamlines communication, reduces redundancy, and ensures the most critical hazard info is front and center. Details: https://www.weather.gov/chs/newAFD

Had .43 rain from Friday and Saturday.

READ THIS AFTER YOU WATCH THE VIDEO The new 0z Sunday operationally European model is quite impressive. For the first time it not only develops a CLOSED UPPER LOW but it now forms a closed in southwest ILL , drops into the deep Longwave Trough on the East Coast Wednesday night. From there the closed 500 UPPER LOW deepens and drops SE into the Carolinas by Thursday night. If this solution is correct it matches the GFS solution in developing a significant Coastal storm Nor'easter along the Delmarva Coast with rain initially along the coastal areas and heavy snow in the Piedmont and Appalachian Mountains of the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley . If we were to Take verbatim the 0z sunday European model run, the surface LOW Pounds the hell out of western NC/ far southeast KY/ southwest VA the entire Shenandoah Valley/ Western MDd and most of WV On Thursday and Thursday evening the coastal LOW intensifies and rain changes the snow in I-95 and coastal areas Thursday night . Snow continues through Friday dawn in the eastern half of VA/ c central and eastern MD/ and the Delmarva and possibly Hampton roads. The European model has a break in the snow shield from Baltimore to NYC while Southeast New England sees some moderate accumulating snow. As I mentioned in the video the key to the January 15 event is the formation of the closed UPPER LOW -- this feature HAS to drop into the Carolinas in order for there to be a significant Middle Atlantic winter storm. If that UPPER LOW never forms or let's say the orms over PA that would be great for NY state and New England but it would be complete Miss for a new the southern Middle Atlantic.

6pm they will.

DT: WILL DO A NEW SHORT VIDEO THIS EVENING ABOUT JAN 15-16. The last few runs on the operational GFS continued develop a huge snowstorm for the middle I thank New England coast. the model not me but the model is showing something like the January 2016 blizzard or Something like the 1909 or 1922 blizzards on the Mid-Atlantic coast. it's a very extreme solution. it's not out of the question but most of the data is against that kind of massive system. on the other hand the upper level energy on the 12z Saturday midday European model has taken a big step towards the GFS idea of a big Mid-Atlantic winter storm on January 15

Time will tell. Maybe DT was right on his rant yesterday.

Or when ther is 6 inches of snow on the ground and traffic is snarled.