mahantango#1

Hopefully we get our paralyzing snowstorm.

ABC27 said basically they are taking snow out of their forecast for the overnight hours tonight. Didn't even mention possible icy roads tomorrow morning. Nws on the other hand issued a HWO for possible slippery travel overnight and early tomorrow morning. I have a Dr. appoint in Camphill @7:30am tomorrow and i'm on the fence of canceling it, because of possible icy roads. And being about 40 miles from the place where my appointment is scheduled for, forecast matters. And I doubt Penndot will do anything until there is icy conditions or accidents, in my neck of the woods. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Maybe the possible icy conditions will not exist tomorrow morning.

Flash freeze? Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 PAZ010>012-017>019-025>028-034>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-150945- Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 439 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Rain mixing with or changing to snow along with plummeting temperatures below freezing could result in slippery conditions late tonight into Thursday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Absolutely!

It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell. And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day.

I know it's only January 13th, but each day of this winter is slowly slipping away day by day. Hopefully we can get one big snowstorm 12 inches plus before March.

And if you really disagree and call him out he will delete and block you.

Wxrisk.com NEAR HALF POINT OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER and more about JAN 15-16 NON EVENT One of the reasons why I change the avatar, especially during the winter months is to give you an idea on what I think of the overall worker pattern and of course snow chances for the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. I have been reading a few comments that some people thought I had committed to the January 15 16 winter storm threat scenario or outcome. When I issue the SNOWDOG HOLMES it simply means that I think there's a real possibility of something that's happening but it's just a possibility and not a forecast. I am not sure if this is a failure on my part to communicate or the fact that some people just really fooking stupid. Maybe some people don't enjoy all the scientific meteorological discussion and just want the simple forecast. There is nothing wrong with that but that's not what I knew here. In the next weather video on Wednesday I will go into this more detail but experienced meteorologists that do operational weather forecast -- that is to say daily weather forecasting and weekly forecasting -- know that there is this peculiar BARRIER er or breakpoint that exists between the extended models and the shorter range models. That BARRIER is somewhere around 60 to 84 hours-- 2.5 to 3.5 days. I cannot tell you of the number of times I have seen the weather models forecast a severe weather outbreak or snowstorm or hurricane threat at 7 or 8 days out and consistently show that kind of scenario only to see it suddenly changed dramatically at 72 hours. Why does that happen ? As good as the super Advanced satellites are there is still a large “data void” of high quality reliable data covering the Pacific basin. If we keep in mind that all weather is connected and for every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction then it is easier to understand why this barrier in the forecast process is actually there. For example if the weather models are showing a big storm by the Aleutian Islands at Day 5 that the weather model jumps on to develop an Arctic air mass outbreak across the eastern US at day 8, that can suddenly look very different once we reach 72 hrs. Weather systems in the Eastern Pacific and the west coast of North America usually take three or four days to travel across the continent. The data becomes much more solid and refined and as a result the computer models no longer have to “guess” what the pattern is looking like in the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand there have been some famous hurricanes and East Coast snow storms where the global models at 6, Day 7 or Day 8 days that got the forecast almost exactly right without any variation or sudden changes. The January 2016 blizzard is one example of that. the January 2014 East Coast snowstorm. The 3 winter storms that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January early February of 2010. The primary reason why those events were accurately predicted by the extended weather models is because the MJO -- the Madden Julian Oscillation -was in the phase that supports that kind of winter pattern. In other words the MJO and the computer models were aligned perfectly. With this event for January 15 16 they are NOT aligned at all which is one of the reasons why I was skeptical

17 this morning.

I think even JB seemed to throw the towel in too. At least were not down to the 2 minute warning with no timeouts left and down by 7 points.

Might as well Stick a fork in this one:

And just like that sun came back out temp above freezing, snow disappeared.

Nice snow squall here. Temp dropped below freezing grass turned white with 48mph wind gusts.

You had more on Friday .02 more.