mahantango#1

And just like that sun came back out temp above freezing, snow disappeared.

Nice snow squall here. Temp dropped below freezing grass turned white with 48mph wind gusts.

You had more on Friday .02 more.

I see looks like CTP already changed. Starting Jan 12 at 12pm, we’re transitioning our Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) to a "Key Message" format. This impacts-first approach streamlines communication, reduces redundancy, and ensures the most critical hazard info is front and center. Details: https://www.weather.gov/chs/newAFD

Had .43 rain from Friday and Saturday.

READ THIS AFTER YOU WATCH THE VIDEO The new 0z Sunday operationally European model is quite impressive. For the first time it not only develops a CLOSED UPPER LOW but it now forms a closed in southwest ILL , drops into the deep Longwave Trough on the East Coast Wednesday night. From there the closed 500 UPPER LOW deepens and drops SE into the Carolinas by Thursday night. If this solution is correct it matches the GFS solution in developing a significant Coastal storm Nor'easter along the Delmarva Coast with rain initially along the coastal areas and heavy snow in the Piedmont and Appalachian Mountains of the Middle Atlantic and the Ohio Valley . If we were to Take verbatim the 0z sunday European model run, the surface LOW Pounds the hell out of western NC/ far southeast KY/ southwest VA the entire Shenandoah Valley/ Western MDd and most of WV On Thursday and Thursday evening the coastal LOW intensifies and rain changes the snow in I-95 and coastal areas Thursday night . Snow continues through Friday dawn in the eastern half of VA/ c central and eastern MD/ and the Delmarva and possibly Hampton roads. The European model has a break in the snow shield from Baltimore to NYC while Southeast New England sees some moderate accumulating snow. As I mentioned in the video the key to the January 15 event is the formation of the closed UPPER LOW -- this feature HAS to drop into the Carolinas in order for there to be a significant Middle Atlantic winter storm. If that UPPER LOW never forms or let's say the orms over PA that would be great for NY state and New England but it would be complete Miss for a new the southern Middle Atlantic.

6pm they will.

DT: WILL DO A NEW SHORT VIDEO THIS EVENING ABOUT JAN 15-16. The last few runs on the operational GFS continued develop a huge snowstorm for the middle I thank New England coast. the model not me but the model is showing something like the January 2016 blizzard or Something like the 1909 or 1922 blizzards on the Mid-Atlantic coast. it's a very extreme solution. it's not out of the question but most of the data is against that kind of massive system. on the other hand the upper level energy on the 12z Saturday midday European model has taken a big step towards the GFS idea of a big Mid-Atlantic winter storm on January 15

Time will tell. Maybe DT was right on his rant yesterday.

Or when ther is 6 inches of snow on the ground and traffic is snarled.

My NWS has no precipitation in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Yes those rainfall totals dwindled. What looked like a good rain event went to crap. Just like our snow storms they went to crap too so far this winter. Hopefully Blizz can pull that magic rabbit out of his hat 30 here also.

From DT: ABOUT JAN 15-16 only 6 days away .... You undoubtedly will see some dumb weather weenie trying to play Jim Cantore OR some meteorologist on TV or social media attempt to tell you that this thing is a week away blah blah blah . That is Bullshit Remember folks the purpose of issuing weather forecasts is to get the weather information out to people /businesses. organizations BEFORE the event actually begins. If the data is correct the event begins on January 15 which is 6 days away -do the math Anybody telling you this is 7 or 8 days away is full of shit- either they are stupid or too lazy to be bother so they bullshitting you hoping that they dont have to work too hard.

DT is starting to get excited too. But I don't know if that includes Pennsylvania.