Met1985

Well to me the gfs took a big step towards the euro. There is a sharp gratient on the snow line right along the border counties. Gfs still very very cold. Might have warmed up a degree or two but still very cold.

And this is exactly what I was talking about last night. This watch is from Andrews south. Today or tomorrow the rest of the mountains will be issued something similar. ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 below zero in higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford- Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and/or ice accumulations from freezing rain of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

Ice, ice baby! Haywood-Transylvania- Including the city of Waynesville 339 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. A light glaze is expected at elevations above 3500 feet. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet over the Balsam Mountains in Haywood and Transylvania Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

Yeah a big jump in snowfall on this side of the mountain for sure. Hopefully a last minute trend towards recognizing more moisture behind the front.

The NAM looked much better this morning especially for the southern mountains with the expanse of snow and snowfall numbers. The NAM 3K followed suit with upping totals and being a but more expansive on the snowfall. Even giving the airport at least a trace this run.

Euro is very dry and warmer.

NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion.

Also just a bit of fun but even with the lack of snow possibly this is a historic event and it will be a memorable event. To see temperatures this cold with windchills that we are going to see and the dramatic temperature drop is something we rarely see here. This is a rare event especially in December. Possible record breaking pressure in Montana. Make no mistake about the shear size of this event across the country. We will have wind chill warnings and high wind advisories and high wind warnings also. If you by chance you see a changeover to snow then you'll likely see some brief blizzard conditions locally...

Yeah the changeover will not be gradually. It's going to turnaround on a dime.

I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains. Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.

To me it is clear the euro is drying up ever so slightly over the past 3 to 4 runs....

Euro is abysmal on the snow chances. The euro keeps the low wrapped up much further north than the gfs. And with the verification scores this could be the right solution.

Yeah yall will flirt with single digits. At this moment im thinking one of us will make it to at least negative 5 to negative 10 here in the mountains especially if you have some snow on the ground.

Easy on the ho down to Hickory this is a kid friendly site lol.

Yes very very similar except this cold blast is way more potent and has some staying power.

I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero.

Ill tell you one thing the closer we get to the cold front the colder the models are getting. Should be several people below zero Friday night into Saturday morning. Bone chilling cold.

12z gfs still looks to give most some flakes. The old rain changing to snow routine as temps comes crashing down....

You can see the moisture working in from the south over the mountains. Could squeeze out some flakes this after. Most all the models did not have this coming through.

06z gfs was a bit better this morning with regards of snowfall for Friday. Even Asheville gets 2 inches out of this run. Probably 6 plus along the border. Cold front blasts through and temps drop like a rock.

Yep I believe it!

The gfs is even more extreme. Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models.

Take Asheville at hour 90 they are at 43, hour 96 at 23 degrees, at hour 102 at 17 degrees, hour 108 at 10 degrees. Hour 114 at 6 degrees. This is from today's euro run. You know a lot of us are 10 to 15 degrees colder than the Asheville airport....

Also current temp is a cool 30 degrees. The front that's going to blow through here means business. We will see some huge temp drops in a very short period. If you have outdoor animals bring them in or get some very thick bedding out of the wind for them. We will likely see temps below zero. Make sure your car is winterized and your pipes are insulated because this cold means business. Take care of things early this week before the weather goes to crap.