FLweather
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Mid and upper 90s possible for my area after Wednesday. Sure hope we don't get a repeat of last May this early in the season. 98-102. Still patiently waiting for the rainy season to get into gear. Currently near 90. Leaves are falling hella bad.
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That's wild.
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It's been dry. The drought in Tx is expanding east.
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I'll take a blend of Icon/Canadian for this coming week. Actually shows decent rain chances deep into Florida. Past several weeks the fire hose has been aligned Sw to NE well to my Nw over the panhandle AL, GA, LA, MS
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There will have to be some major changes on the h5 level to even become favorable. Icon for example. The two SW need a trajectory from Montana to Tx. Not Montana to LA, Ms, Al. It's got dig more South West.
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GFS? No.
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Who would want to got to that garbage pit? Alot nice areas around the GL.
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I know. That's the reason why I said north and west of 85. Lots of potential.
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North and west of I85 never disappoints.
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Just yalls luck. Blow through Nov, Dec, Jan then winter decides to show up mid/late Feb to March. Wonder if yall should be concerned April and May?
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Considering the gfs, icon, euro then cmc. I'd take my chances with the short range mesocale models.
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This type of setup pretty well gonna be 3 things. Rain, snow or s/s mix. No possibility of zr.
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H5 level is different as well. Further east with the SW vs 6z. Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed.
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Wouldn't really call it a shift north. Models playing catch up on the over running precip. H5 looks roughly the same. Compare to earlier model runs having the right precip gradient at the TN, MS, AL, GA lines.
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Need that Sw out west to consolidate more as it drops south and east. As depicted currently by the models. Its stretched out from the Rockies to the EC. That's causing the suppression not the HP.
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The h5 level definitely more concentrated and digging more over AZ/NM vs the strung out of the gfs. Good signs but still too far out of range.
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Looking at the WRF. Virginia Beach south to extreme northern Outer Banks may see some Ocean Effect snow showers/flurries tomorrow. The column is below freezing. Moisture is limited. But very possible for some low top streamers coming off the Atlantic. Winds in the lowest 6k feet coming in out the NE. Doesn't happen much. So it would be a rarity for them.
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This front looks pathetic atm. A shadow of its former self. Rooting for my SE crew to get a snowstorm. FL could use some rain. Dry around my area.
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Based off that model, most of soundings show temps near 33-34 under snow. Might not stick too well. But the convective nature its showing probably be big fat flakes
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Of course. Because the path of the center There was very significant tropical SE(upslope) flow against the Blue Ridge. And heavy rains over the Piedmont. The water didn't have no where to go. From personal experience. Danville and South Boston I've seen alot of Debris in that river. In the from of branches and log jams too. So that could be another factor.
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When the Dan River floods it floods. Alot of low country in the Dan River Basin from the mouth in the mountains through the Piedmont. I've seen South Boston Va underwater from the Dan River. There is a boat ramp off of 57 SE of Danville along the state line before Hyco Lake that is notorious for flooding.
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The Pacific is a plague that keeps on year after year. If the Pacific would relax some probably allow a -nao to develop.
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When I was living in Roxboro. From 1999-2014. I don't really recall any year where nothing fell. We had good years and bad years. But I don't recall any thing like this year.
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Just something to watch after the front and storms later this week. This is the 18z icon. Shows a piece of energy held back over Texas and potential new system along the "old" front. The goofus has something similar roughly 30 hours later without significant consequence running through TN. Much more ridging out west vs goofus.
