RogueWaves

So much for our eastern trough winter. Can we at least do as well in Jan as last winter, and maybe improve a bit on Feb. After that, I'm all spring all the time

Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track

Dropped into the 20s overnight again. Hope everyone has a good Christmas and the New Year brings the return of winter. EC showing a system 2nd/3rd for us but too far away to move the needle. Let's see if it can hold onto the idea?

I remember early season Euro "monthly" snow departure maps. Dec was a dud (check), but Jan and especially Feb were AN to much AN. So there's that fwiw.

Which is the opposite of what "low solar" should be bringing us. This 3rd rock from the sun is really screwed up!

This one's actually been decent by this decade's stds (which isn't saying much tbh) December futility rankings this past decade (based on 1"+ snow cover days): 1. 2014 2. 2018 3. 2015 4. 2011 5. 2019? 6. 2012

Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T"

It may come a bit south of that in the end, but ultimately for those of us not in the far N or NW of this sub, this is a continuation of last winter's "haves" and "have nots"

Those maps look good on the surface. They say nothing wrt timing of cold/moisture and just how much snow is produced where. Other than that caveat, I have zero issues with 'em.

Even better is the nice covering of white I've had this week before Christmas and it came in a way that didn't really snarl traffic much. Light duty clean-up too. Perfecto! for this busy time..

Euro also has followed the GEFS lead in taking the EPO more than a little bit negative, and it's weeklies are looking colder as well. TBD tho on the battle of the MJO. I think endless torch or blah wx may have been over sold

There! you've said it

Similarly, if I take last Nov out of last season, it leaves me at only around 75% of avg. I would much rather that Nov snow that never sticks around came as one nice storm in real winter. And yes, 2015 had more than just one BD event so I'd sign up for it quicker than say last winter's JFM. As for enduring these long blah spells to get said BD like in Jan '99 I would agree to the deal since large storms are my #1 followed by deep snow cover at #2, and just any snow cover at #3 priority. Seeing as 2015 featured all of those a similar outcome this winter would be more than welcomed.

12-19-98 I had one remaining marigold near my garage door in S. Bend still alive and blooming. One of the craziest extended autumns I can remember.

That was a great storm by mid-Dec std's. LOL tho, I was little bit disappointed in my 10" total since just one county south scored the 15" legit Big Dog. Ahh, those were the days (07-10) of action for our Lwr Lakes sub-region.

Easily done in Chicago..

0z GFS just tried!

Nah, some north, some south. A meet in the middle works. Can we get back to this tho is the question?

Nice trend on the GEFS, let's hope it's legit.

Thx to a 2" score today, I'm already beating last Dec's total. And, I'm at 20% of my seasonal avg on 12/10. Amazing what looking out on nice white ground can do for one's perception of the young winter. The holiday cheer-O-meter saw a big spike today.

Could it really be any worse? Just going off climo at our latitude would fulfill that statement. But yeah, I agree, somebody's bound to score post-15th. Just tough to say who right now.

Most upbeat post from you I can remember. Must be the holidays!

It is, followed by windy SHSN which even per the GFS's own output amounts to very little south of NMI snow belts. I wish the models would just quit already with the teases.

Yay! Thx for the good news..tho not surprised.

Euro won't "let go the bone" on a GOMEX Low next Friday