lwx 9:19 pm AFD/obs
ETA forgot to add 1.7" here so far
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
989 mb low pressure center is located not too far from Cape
Fear NC. Latest NAM has the best initialization in terms of
position and magnitude, the GFS is not too far off, while Euro
is more than 100 miles off with its position. So far, up to 1.32
inches of rain have fallen at Leonardtown MD (St. Mary`s
County) with up to 0.6 inch per hour rainfall rates being
observed at several locations. Rain will continue to pivot
north and west of the low pressure center overnight. Southern
MD will see a brief lull in intensity in the next couple hours,
but another batch of moderate/heavy rain currently over
northeastern NC will move in overnight. Latest guidance continue
to indicate areas east of I-95, particularly southern MD will
see the heaviest rain. Risk of flooding rainfall will continue
overnight until the rain begins to exit around daybreak Monday.
Wind Advisories were issued earlier for the potential for 40kt
gust with the initial surge of winds behind exiting low
pressure. Strongest winds are likely between 12Z-18Z before they
start diminishing during the mid-late afternoon.