wolfie09

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Overnight low temperatures between 33 to 38 degrees will result in areas of frost formation. * WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are forecast to quickly fall into the 30s later this evening. Temperatures may hold steady or slowly rise toward daybreak as clouds move in.

GFS still advertising some fantasy goodies for the higher elevations, going to take a lot to overcome that toasty lake Imby..lol

During the balance of this period...our attention will turn back to the synoptic scale as a sharpening baroclinic zone initially sets up across the Ohio Valley Sunday...then pushes north into the Southern/ Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday in response to a strong shortwave/attendant area of low pressure rippling northeastward along the resultant tight thermal gradient. Strong warm advective lift/isentropic ascent along the baroclinic zone will combine with plentiful moisture and favorable lower and upper level jet dynamics (including an impressive coupled upper level jet structure and strongly diffluent flow aloft) to bring a widespread soaking rainfall to our region...with this beginning as early as late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening across the Southern Tier...then overspreading the rest of the area through the balance of the period. Given all this...have continued the midnight shift`s trend of raising PoPs... with these now bumped up into the categorical range for both Sunday night and Monday. At this early juncture...it appears that we could be looking at a general inch to inch and a half of rain across much of our area between Sunday night and Monday...with somewhat lower amounts of a half inch to an inch across the North Country. With respect to temperatures...these will generally run near to a little below average through the period. Expect lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday night...highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday...and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. On Monday a tighter thermal gradient will likely be in place with our region bisected by a slow moving surface frontal boundary...with a rain-cooled northeasterly low level flow on the north side of the front keeping highs confined to the mid 40s to lower 50s along and north of the Thruway...while interior portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier should see readings reach the 55-60 range south of the boundary. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Two Pacific systems will impact our region this period. The first, with a surface low just to our southwest Monday Night will continue the rain across our region...with low clouds and fog shrouding the higher hilltops. Moist cyclonic flow aloft will maintain clouds while rain becomes lighter through the night as the warm conveyor belt and its lift slides towards eastern New York. Under cold air advection Tuesday rain showers will continue over the region and likely not until Tuesday Night when drier air follows the departing upper level low will our region start to dry from west to east. While a spot shower or two is possible early Wednesday across eastern zones, a mid level ridge will pass over our region...with this ridge separating the two Pacific systems. Dry weather is expected under this ridge Wednesday and Wednesday Night. The next Pacific low, this deeper both aloft and at the surface will bring rain showers back into our region Thursday. As this upper level low slowly passes across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, periods of rain showers are likely for our region. Cloud cover will likely keep our minimum temperatures from falling below normal, while daytime highs will remain near to slightly above normal this period.

Not looking good in the near term BW, obviously things can change..

A month later this would of been hell of a snowstorm on the backside.. Either way the weather looks to turn active.

Starting to look a bit more like October lol Storm system on the 25/26th and another a few days later..

Only a 20% chance of showers today but it's been raining all morning lol We didn't see much from the CF and only have 0.39" for the event..Temp continues to slowly drop, sitting at 46.2°..

The next system continues to trend north, at least on the GFS..

The issue with this cool down is we are forecast clouds and showers nearly every day..So while some of the highs are below average, lows are not and keep rising lol Sunday night went from mid 30s to low 40s.. Today was kind of a cheap high of 59° at midnight but most of the day will feature mid-upper 40s.. Currently 49° with on and off weak lake showers..

A deep storm system churning over James Bay will remain in place through most of the weekend. This feature will maintain a feed of very cool air in place through the period that will hold our temperatures at below normal levels. Fortunately, this is only the latter half of October. If this were during the heart of winter, this pattern would support significant lake snows.

Didn't realize we have the same weather night after night

Surface analysis as of 5 pm.. Front is on the door step or currently going through WNY.. Earlier I posted the front on the doorstep at 18z or 2 pm lol Front must of slowed or something..

Here comes the rain..

Regional radars showing initial round of showers and embedded thunder just entering far western New York this afternoon. Instability and shear across the area at this stage of the day very limited. Shear and instability should get better as we move into the late afternoon and early evening ahead of the surface cold front currently across far eastern Michigan and western Ohio. The expectation is that a somewhat organized line of convection will enter far western New York around 6/7 pm then translate eastward across the area. Convection likely exiting eastern areas around midnight or so. This timing is suggested by the latest 16/17z runs of the HRRR. We will need to monitor this convection as it moves across the area with the potential for some stronger wind gusts. Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds of 25 to 35 mph will develop tonight. Incoming cooler air aloft could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes. Friday continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the 40s. Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake showers possible

How can you tell that from a probability map? Lol Its a 40-50% chance of above average, that's not that high, you have a 50%+ chance of something else aka Avg-below..

CF should move through sometime mid afternoon in WNY and later this evening in CNY..

I guess take the good with the bad? Lol Hopefully+anomalies aren't to high lol We can afford some just not a lot..

Sizzle Sizzle lol In reality these are low-mid 60s, still nice weather just warmer than normal lol It's also the warmest frame..

Area of light showers associated with an incoming minor upper impulse and within weak warm air advection just south of a surface boundary stalled to the north of the U.S./Canadian border. Hi-res guidance having a difficult time picking up on this activity early in the day, but has improved of late indicating this scattered activity will push through the area from west to east through the rest of the afternoon. A few localized spots could pick up a few hundredths, but likely no more than that. This activity should diminish this evening as the upper impulse passes with a period of mainly dry weather into the overnight night, although a few showers are possible associated with continued weak warm advection.

Overcast skies have made an appearance, dropping the temperatures around 3°-4°..Still managed 68° earlier this afternoon..

We have one to our NW that's expected to move through tomorrow evening..Seems like the models are missing whatever is going on lol

Finally going to feel like it should this time of year, starting Friday..Or even a little below.. Could see current forecast min temps in the mid-upper 30s western NY to around 30 east of Lake Ontario possibly going lower if lake effect clouds and showers are not as prevalent. If so, we may need some frost or freeze headlines on what will be the final day of our program for the Fall. Friday A slight chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Sunday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.