wolfie09

NWS mentions an inverted trough tomorrow.. Potential exist for 2"-3"+ wherever this sets up..(according to guidance) On Tuesday, parent upper trough will dive toward Mid Atlantic coast while sfc low continues to deepen significantly off Long Island. Sharp convergence along inverted trough to northwest of the low with resurgence of deeper moisture and upper divergence due to jet lifting ahead of the upper trough will result in rain becoming widespread again. Heaviest rain amounts of over three-quarters of an inch will occur from western Finger Lakes eastward, but even areas over far western NY will see at least a couple tenths in what will be a damp, dreary day. Much cooler day over the Southern Tier as mid to upper 60s from today will be replaced by upper 40s to around 50. Low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Kind of a weird look here, like some sort of ivt.. Either way guidance is showing some "potential" decent rain totals tonight through tomorrow..

Icon sighting

GFS looking wetter for CNY..

For here I think it's 2014-2015 December 37/26 Dep+5 January 26/6 Dep -4 February 20/-1 Dep -12.5 March 35/14 Dep -4.5

For Upstate, the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter this year is about 50%. While that sounds like a coin toss, it’s not. There remains a 33% chance that we’ll see a normal winter, which means the likelihood of a colder-than-normal winter is just 17%. Gottschalk cautioned that long-term forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. “The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he said. La Ninas tend to cause a big dip in the jet stream in the middle of the continent; from there, the jet stream rises north and crosses over the Ohio Valley and through Upstate New York. Small swings in the jet stream can put Upstate on the cold or warm side of it, spelling the difference between snow and rain. Link

Well I guess it's something to watch lol Need a lot to go right to get accumulating snow first week in November.. Obviously timing off from this far out..

Picked up just under 1/2" liquid overnight, rain has pretty much stopped, now we wait for the coastal to take over..

Could be some upper 30s tomorrow.. In the Adirondacks lol NWS has gone back and forth several times between low 50s and temps near 60° tomorrow.. Different story south of Lake Ontario to the Finger Lakes though as sfc warm front is forecast to lift through those areas allowing any rain to cut out and sfc temps to rise well into the 60s. Closer to where northeast low-level flow persists temps will be stuck in the mid to upper 50s. Any shift of the sfc boundary will alter these temperature expectations so will need to keep eye on

The dry weather will give way to an area of rain that will approach from the south. A strengthening 850H warm front will track north out ahead of an area of low pressure that will be centered over the western Ohio Valley this evening. As the front tracks north, the forcing from the strengthening warm front, combined with a push of moisture from the south, will cause steady rain to push into the Western Southern Tier by the late afternoon. Steadier rainfall will be moderate at times for the Western Southern Tier as it continues to push north. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s in the higher terrain. Tonight, the warm front will continue to push north ahead of the area of low pressure that will be centered over the southern end of Lake Michigan by Monday morning. Steady, moderate rain will track north, nearing the south shore of Lake Ontario by around Midnight tonight, with rainfall tracking over the entire area through the early morning hours. Patchy fog will also be possible tonight with the steadier rainfall that is expected. Temperatures tonight in the low 40s from the higher terrain to the upper 40s for the lower elevations. Rainfall amounts from this afternoon through tonight will generally be in the half to one inch range, with some locally higher amounts possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The phasing of two storm systems over the Lower Great Lakes during this period will result in a stretch of unsettled weather that will include rainfall amounts ranging from an inch and a half across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to a half inch near the Pennsylvania border. Fortunately...this will come over a period of two days so hydro issues are not expected. Monday will feature a warm front that will north to Lake Ontario. For our forecast area...this will focus the bulk of rainfall near and east of Lake Ontario with several hours of mild rainfree weather for parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. The widespread rain will rotate back across our region Monday night and Tuesday...as a newly formed sfc low will make its way across Pennsylvania before dropping anchor near Long Island. As the low slowly churns further off the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday...showers will taper off from west to east. NHCan guidance the odd man out the past couple of model runs being way too cold on the backside of the aforementioned sfc low. Have taken a blend of GFS and ECMWF for this event.

pair of mid level storms will phase into one new system over the Lower Great Lakes early in the new work week. This will result in a prolonged period of rainy, unsettled weather, although the rain will temporarily give way to fair weather for part of Monday. While rainfall from tonight through Wednesday morning will total as much as two inches, no hydro problems are anticipated

Looks like WPC upgraded their winter maps for this year, no more circles just a color scheme..

We cleared out enough overnight to see a little patchy frost with a low of 34.9°..

Sharp temp contract on Monday thanks to the boundary/WF..Not sure how far north that's making it yet lol

GFS still has a storm signal first week of November..This run it's more of a coastal system but it there..

First time in a while leaning below lol Albeit a small percentage..

WPC through D5 and D7. Euro through D4

Some fantasy slopfest in the LR.. Granted it's algorithm thing but who cares lol 300+ hours out..

Pretty good shot at our first sub 50 high..Temp has actually been dropping the last couple hours from a high of 48.9°..

GFS is more "showery" than heavy rain due to the transfer..

It's closer to the surface that's the issue verbatim..925 mb above freezing as well as BL in the low-mid 40s.. Actually kbuf is one of the warmer spots with an onshore flow from a warm lake..It will be different soon lol

A widespread soaking rainfall is expected from Sunday night into Tuesday, with the potential to result in up to two inches of rain in some areas. Rainfall during this time may result in poor drainage flooding in some of these areas.

I went on to one road last year near Barnes corners that was barely wide enough to fit a car lol Needless to say the road just ended, never seen anything like it lol One min on a dirt road, the next in the woods..It was tough turning around.. Thankfully it was only lightly snowing..Fun times.. Thinking about go back this year..

Yeah cloud cover and NW flow off the warm lake..Still low -mid 40s east of Ontario with clouds.. Actually not much of a wind tonight, just mostly cloudy.. Tonight 850MB temps will continue to drop to the -2C to -4C range. Despite the cold airmass, the lake response will be muted by dry air and subsidence in the mid levels. Boundary layer flow will become very weak tonight, allowing land breeze circulations to become dominant. This will force bands of lake effect rain showers to primarily reside over the lakes with very little inland penetration. A few showers may clip the Lake Erie shore southwest of Buffalo at times tonight. A few more showers may clip the Lake Ontario shore from the Monroe County over to Oswego County late tonight and Saturday morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry tonight. Low temperatures will drop to upper 30s/near 40 across the lake plains and mid 30s across the Southern Tier and North Country. Increasing cloud cover across western New York and eventually central New York should keep frost potential to a minimum.