wolfie09

So GFS and Canadian pretty much flip flopped with last night's Canadian bringing a storm up the coast and the GFS now suppressing the system.. Verbatim the Canadian is rain for the lakes anyway lol

First wording of "snow" in the forecast.. Obviously would be early morning with a forecast low of 35°, maybe a mangled flake lol Either way a long shot at this point.. Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

HWO An inch to an inch and half of additional rainfall is expected Friday into Saturday. This combined with recent heavy rain will maintain high levels on many creeks and rivers, with localized flooding possible.

Obviously not the first time I've seen the moon in the daylight but usually not this early, that I can remember lol

Well at least we are starting to see some consistency with a potential storm around the 4th/5th... Latest GFS slides off to the south and east with the trough just starting to go negative tilted .

A trough will then dig across the Great Lakes mid-week, which will drive a cooler airmass into the region. This will produce showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes. Adjusted model guidance to account for lake effect precipitation. Expect mainly rain showers, but with 850mb temperatures dropping to -5c some wet snow flakes are possible well inland from the lakes

Take advantage of the rain-free weather today, because a soaking rain will gradually spread from southwest to northeast across the area during the day on Friday. Expect about an inch of rain across Western New York Friday and Friday night

Yeah, GFS gas some snow in the Dacks but rain for most verbatim..

Got down to 32 overnight, forecast low was 38° lol

No rest for the weary.. Unfortunately...conditions will then trend downhill again through the rest of this period as another large closed upper low slowly lumbers its way northeastward from the mid-Mississippi Valley to New York State...and brings another lengthy period of wet weather to our region. Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...this next system should remain distant enough to merely bring a general southwest to northeast increase in cloud cover and a chance of showers to the Southern Tier Thursday night. Conditions will then deteriorate more notably Friday and Friday night as a surge of plentiful Atlantic moisture and increasing lift on the system`s northeastern flank arrives...with these enhanced by a 40-50 kt southeasterly low level jet and a strongly diffluent flow aloft in the LFQ of a 100 kt cyclonically curved upper level jet streak. This will result in a swath of moderate rain overspreading areas from the western Finger Lakes westward during the course of Friday...before pivoting northward across Lake Ontario and the North Country Friday night. The rain will then become lighter on Saturday as the aforementioned supporting jet structures weaken and slide off to our east...though precip probabilities should remain fairly high (likely PoPs) into at least Saturday evening. At this juncture...basin average rainfall totals for the Friday-Saturday period look to be on the order of another half inch to an inch...with amounts in excess of an inch appearing possible across far southwestern New York

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

Euro had a touch of wintry through D10..

Fantasy goofus hits up the mountains pretty good..The clown map is through the entirety..

Still raining and slowly adding up..If it wasn't for a couple hour lull overnight we would be approaching 24 straight hours of rain..

You guys still have a ways to go too.. Precipitation rates starting to slow down here.. We have 2.22" on the day and 2.81' for the event..(so far) Flood warnings issued just my south..(by like a mile lol)

Latest probabilities for the first week in November..(D8-14 not updated yet)..

Leave it to a rainstorm for me to over perform lol NWS morning graphic shows 0.5-1" in pulaski, I just hit 1" (2.10" for the event)since 8 am and as you can see, more to come..

We had a high of 54° at 3AM before dropping to 47/48 for the reminder of the morning, temp starting to slowly rise again, up to 50°.. Rainfall wise, up to 1.06" on the day and 1.65" for the event.. Some moderate showers moving in..

One would think this would of been a nice winter storm down the road but we probably still find a way to rain lol Storm looks to be in the vicinity of NYC (just west) according to the wind finder.. WPC has it doing a loop over NJ before pulling away OTS..

Plenty of precipitation to get through although this may weaken before getting here..

Yeah looks pretty much stationary..

1.20" here split between yesterday and overnight, currently 48° and light rain..

Rain has returned.. Coming down at a solid clip .