wolfie09

I'm surprised ruggs even survived it with only minor injuries but the drunks always seem to survive.. Here's a pic of his Corvette..The victims car burst into flames which is why I won't be showing it..

Rodgers has COVID.. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32542413/green-bay-packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-tests-positive-covid-19-source-says

Tragic to say the least.. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32543330/henry-ruggs-iii-drove-156-mph-seconds-fatal-car-crash-prosecutors-say

Look at some of these months in the 2000s, pretty much what we get a season now lol January/Feb 2008.. Probably the most impressive event for pulaski was in Feb 2008 as around 50" fell in 18hours or so..

So I've noticed for what ever reason the pulaski spotter reports their precipitation amounts a day later.. Just like today they reported 0.04" while the rest of the reports were 0.35"-0.40", I bet that shows up tomorrow This was for the end of October rain event..

.New York... ...Allegany County... Alfred 0.6 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP West Almond 3.6 SW 0.5 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Cattaraugus County... Cattaraugus 3W 2.6 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Little Valley 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Randolph 1.1 ENE 1.0 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Ischua 0.4 SSE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Olean 0.3 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP Franklinville 0.5 NNE 0.2 in 0728 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Chautauqua County... Gerry 0.8 N 3.8 in 0745 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Kennedy 2.6 SE 1.8 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mayville 0.2 ESE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Dewittville 1.0 SSE 0.4 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Falconer 0.3 WSW 0.3 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Erie County... 3 ENE Holland 1.5 in 0630 AM 11/03 Public Boston 2.5 NE 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1.4 NNW 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1W 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP ...Jefferson County... Worth 4.0 in 1000 AM 11/03 Trained Spotter ...Lewis County... Highmarket 2W 2.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP Chases Lake 0.5 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP ...Orleans County... Lakeside 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP ...Oswego County... Lacona 3.6 SSE 1.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mexico 2SW 0.1 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Minetto 0.1 SE 0.1 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Wyoming County... Warsaw 6SW 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Warsaw 4W 1.0 in 0630 AM 11/03 COOP Silver Springs 3N 0.9 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Portageville 1W 0.3 in 0726 AM 11/03 COOP &&

Now we sit and wait lol Next 7-10 days looks tranquil..HP dominating the eastern seaboard.. A little warm up in store.. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 51. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 55

It's winter awareness week.. Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, stranding commuters, closing airports, stopping the flow of supplies and disrupting services. Accumulations of snow can cause roofs to collapse and knock down trees and power lines. Homes and farms may be isolated for days. The cost of snow removal, repairing damages, and the loss of business can have severe economic impacts on cities and towns. Heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is defined as 7 inches or more falling in a 12 hour period, or 9 inches or more falling in a 24 hour period. Most heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is caused by lake effect. As arctic air sweeps across the relatively warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario, heavy snow forms and falls downstream. Snowfall rates can exceed 4 inches an hour which is enough to overwhelm most snow removal crews and equipment. Strong winds often accompany lake effect snow which cause deep drifts and reduce visibility. Heavy snow can also fall as the result of large storms called Nor Easters which move up the Atlantic Coast. Whereas lake effect snow usually falls in narrow bands, snow from Nor Easters can blanket thousands of square miles. Looking back at the historical record, Western and Northern New York has had its share of dangerous winter storms. One only has to remember back to November of 2014 to be reminded how dangerous early season winter storms can be when about seven feet of snow fell across the southern parts of the Niagara Frontier. Snow fell at the rate of three to six inches per hour. As is often the case with many of our heavy lake effect snow events, thunder and lightning accompanied the intense lake effect snow. Among all storms, the Blizzard of 1977 ranks as one of the worst. While only about a foot of snow fell from January 28th to February 1st, wind gusts up to 75 miles an hour in Niagara Falls and 69 miles an hour in Buffalo whipped up snow drifts over 20 feet deep, nearly topping telephone poles. Thousands of people were stranded away from their homes as roads became clogged and impassable. Twenty-nine people died, many frozen to death in their buried cars. President Carter proclaimed a federal disaster over a seven county area. People living in and around Rochester will not soon forget the Blizzard of March 4, 1999. Over two feet of snow accompanied by strong winds forced the closing of the New York State Thruway and the stranding of thousands of motorists. The National Guard was called on to help remove cars and rescue the motorists. Power outages affected over 10,000 customers. You can always get the latest information on threatening winter storms, 24 hours a day, by tuning into NOAA weather radio the voice of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service encourages you to prepare now for heavy snows and the effects it may have on the region..

Haha no not buried..It is snowing and 32° with a solid covering..

Flipped to predominantly wet snow here, still sounds like some rain mixing in, temp down to 33°..

Obviously with marginal temps can't expect this much to stick but this how much the hrdps has falling..

Yeah early Am is interesting, verbatim this is rain here but it will be close.. Several models have it as snow including the hi Rez Canadian..

Well looks like the braves did it, congrats BM!!

That's all graupel lol Surface still 41°, DP 31°..

Big ass graupel falling right now, coating the deck pretty good lol

First snow of the season occurred over the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario earlier today. A couple inches of slushy snow fell on the Tug Hill. Lake effect, mainly in the form of rain, continues this afternoon. Upstream a sfc trough across the Niagara Peninsula will swing across by early this evening, shifting winds to more west/northwest and intensifying the lake effect over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps falling to -6c this evening and sfc temps dropping back into the 30s, will not take long for the rain/snow to switch to snow at higher elevations this evening. Over-water instability very impressive tonight especially as shortwave over Michigan swings across the lower Great Lakes. Lake induced CAPES rise to over 1000j/kg and ELs surge above 20kft on Lake Erie and over 25kft on Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, flow starts out from northwest off Lake Erie and remains stationary through the night across the Southern Tier. Given this, appears this will be more of a Chautauqua county into Cattaraugus county higher terrain event. Cold enough though that even lower elevations inland from the Lake Erie shore will see some accumulation. Snow totals into early Wed should reach at least 3 inches with higher amounts of 5 inches across higher terrain and in most persistent bands. Some additional snow will occur into Wed morning as another shortwave drops across with still favorable instability in place. Given the closer proximity of the shortwave tonight and steady low-level flow and such high instability think advisory should work out. Off Lake Ontario, flow starts off the evening west-southwest then veers quickly to west-northwest behind the initial sfc trough. Soundings suggest favorable setup for portions of the Tug Hill much of the night, before winds become more northwest late tonight in wake of the shortwave moving through. Farther approach of the shortwave is a limiting factor as is winds shifting some to start, but think degree of instability and a period of stronger low-level convergence, upslope flow into the Tug Hill will make up for this. Similar amounts as Southern Tier, but with much more of a fetch of air modified by warmer waters of Lake Ontario, expect the rain/snow line to be sharp and snow amounts highly dependent on the terrain. Does appear late tonight into early Wednesday, some snow could occur at lower elevations of Oswego county at least farther inland from the Lake Ontario shore. Given this is the first lake effect event of the season and there is at least small potential to even overachieve in heavier snow, have put winter weather advisories up for lake effect snow across Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario.

12z Wed and Thur..

It's looking like a decent convergence band will setup this evening through the overnight period.. Right now I would favor C Oswego county but it will be close.. Obviously this is just precipitation but you need precipitation to see snow (at least mix in) lol Preferably heavy..

Barns corners

Thank goodness for Eli and Peyton lol The only reason I even watch MNF.. Actually they had josh Allen on last night as a guest..

I would add the Chiefs there if they ever get their act together lol Obviously they have the pedigree and been there before..This is a QB league and it depends what maholmes shows up lol Speaking of the Chiefs, giants made sure they picked up another W lol They will do whatever it takes to lose..The medical staff needs to be fired..They can't stay on the damn field lol Actually I wish the owner could fire himself haha..Joe judge is a terrible terrible coach..That guy has no clue how to run a team.. Clock management is garbage.. Calling timeouts everytime you see something you don't like..That's why they never have timeouts at the end of halves or games.. Going into last night's game giants were outscored 42-0 in the last 2 minutes of a half or game.Pretty much their season in a nutshell lol

More of an accumulating snow concern develops tonight for the higher terrain east of the lakes. Extreme instability develops tonight with lake induced equilibrium levels up to nearly 25K feet with LICAPES values near 1500 J/Kg. This degree of instability will generate healthy convective bands off the lakes. Mesoscale models showing a pretty decent QPF signal on the order of a half inch or more. 850 mb temperatures dropping to near -8C will be plenty cold enough for interior sections to be all snow. If confidence of a steady state nature of the band orientation was higher, might be inclined to consider headlines for this event. However, initial westerly flow regime quickly veers northwesterly overnight and this reorientation of the flow/bands could limit snowfall potential. Despite this, parameters would suggest a fairly high likelihood for the first accumulating snowfall for some of the higher terrain east of the lakes, possibly in the 2-4/3-5" range. Snow-to-liquid ratios likely on the wetter side something in the 8-10:1 range. How much snow gets "lost" as it melts is almost always an unknown, but once we get a coating to build off of we will be good to go. Will continue to mention the accumulating snow risk for the higher terrain in the HWO products, although later shifts may need to consider a headline, if better confidence can be gained. Cyclonic flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. A combination of scattered showers and lake effect showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Most precipitation will be snow early Wednesday morning as temperatures cool to near freezing tonight. Rain showers are expected along the lake shores. If showers occur, snow showers are possible across the lake plains including Buffalo and Rochester Metros Wednesday morning. Temperatures will climb into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon and any snow showers will transition to rain showers. Only trace amounts of snow are expected across the lower elevations with a dusting possible across the higher terrain Wednesday morning.

Looks like it will be our last shot at first flakes for a while..

Hrrr has the smallest band here tomorrow afternoon lol Actually under the band it's 33°-35° surrounded by low-mid 40s..

Here's something to hold you guys over because the pattern on the GFS sucks up until this point lol Dominated by HP, hopefully we get that pattern over with the first two weeks lol