wolfie09

That euro map obviously doesn't include everything..GFS has it snowing till Tues morning..

Models continue to indicate a warm nose aloft making it at least to the Poconos and Catskills. Should this pan out, those areas would see snow, changing to a wintry mix Monday morning, then back to snow on the backside of the system late in the day. Some model guidance (such as the 12Z NAM) actually has this warm nose making it very far west (even to some areas west of I-81). Right now considering this the outlier, but this will have to be watched closely. Another area of uncertainty is the fact that much of the area east of I-81 (except the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos) will see downsloping winds, therefore potentially lowering amounts across those areas. In terms of snow amounts, right now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches for parts of the Finger Lakes (with higher amounts west of our forecast area), with 6-8 inches for areas just west of I-81. Areas east of I-81 are currently forecasted to see 4-6 inches of snow, with some 6-8 inch amounts for the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos. However, confidence in these amounts is still quite low due to the above mentioned factors. A mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible at times for areas south of I-88 and east of I-81 as well.

GFS somewhat salvages the event with 1/2"-3/4" east of Ontario for the wrap around portion..If you look over history (Lake effect archives) Oswego county tends to do well with NW flow on the backside of systems.. Granted it looks more like wrap around then enhancement.. First part of the event is sketchy lol

Steady decline in temps since midnight..

Binghamton

The latest model runs of the 12Z GFS, Canadian and NAM along with the old 00Z ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track of the low from the Southeast States Sunday up through the Catskills and Upper Hudson Valley and into northern New England. The slight shift from 00Z guidance was a track to the west...one that still leaves our region with snow, but could begin to introduce some sleet mixing in across the Upper Genesee Valley and Finger lakes region early Monday. Will leave the forecast as all snow as slight differences in model run to run is expected, though if they do continue this westward trend sleet will become more of a concern along our eastern zones. A surface low will track from near Georgia Sunday morning, inland up the eastern spine of the Appalachian Mountains. This storm will tap into Atlantic moisture, aiding in falling snow to over come an initial very dry lower layer...and begin to produce light snow near the State line early Sunday evening. Sunday Night the surface low will track to southern PA, keeping an inland route with a surface high anchored off the New England coastline. Snow will spread from south to north across our region becoming heavier across western zones Sunday Night where a deformation band of snow will form. Snow under this deformation band will yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour, with the heavy snow then tracking towards Canada and the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday. Initial snowfall ratios will be near a 10:1, possibly sub 10:1 across eastern zones where warmer air may sneak into the region. As the surface low tracks by to our north and deeper colder air pushes back into our region, snow ratios will dramatically increase to 20:1 and higher with lake effect snow then falling south of lakes Erie and Ontario later Monday and Monday Night. While blowing snow initially will be minimal, after the surface low tracks by and the push of colder northerly flow commences blowing snow will begin to impact our region. Northerly winds gusting up to 30 to 35 mph off Lake Ontario will lower visibility a long the southern shore counties. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally remain in the mid to upper 20s. Lows at night will drop back into the upper teens, to single digits east of Lake Ontario.

Not sure how legit this is but funny nonetheless lol We go from 23° to 36° in 3 hrs and back into the 20s 3hours later lol

Well that sucks lol

Wpc introduced some rain showers with the next clipper.. Looks like the Canadian TBH.. Just north of that line at the moment, we'll see how future runs look..

Updated qpf

Not much change with the latest update..

We have some glitter falling here with full sunshine and barely a cloud in the sky lol

Still looks good for you guys..(If it's all snow)

During a strong La Nina episode in 1998-99, Washington's Mt. Baker Ski Area broke the world record for snowfall in a single season: 1,140 inches, or 95 feet! The ski area's annual snowfall average tops 680 inches.

A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast will begin to lift northeast late D2 as it moves over GA/SC, and then races northeast to be over NJ by the end of D3. This will be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a coastal low pressure moving northeast D2-3. The guidance has come into much better agreement with the placement of this low lifting just onshore the coast, roughly along the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup. As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward on robust 290K isentropic ascent characterized by mixing ratios of 4-6 g/kg, and a theta-e ridge blossoming into an impressive TROWAL around the low pressure center. The combination of impressive ascent and deep moisture will produce a significant to major winter storm from the Southern Appalachians through Upstate New York. For snowfall, heavy snow on D2 should be confined to the Southern Appalachians where moist upglide will encounter an atmospheric column that is only cold enough for snow in the higher terrain of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the NC mountains. WPC probabilities on D2 are 40-60% for 4+ inches as the snow does not really begin until late in the period. However, by D3, the low begins to race northward pulling ample moisture with it an spreading snowfall across much of the east coast. While the low track along I-95 will allow WAA to cause p-type to transition to rain from snow well inland, this will not be the case in the higher terrain where WPC probabilities for 6 inches are above 70% from near Asheville, NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA, and it is likely many locations will receive more than 1 foot of snow. To the east, while a changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and rain is likely creating a sharp gradient in snowfall, impressive leading WAA will likely produce several inches of snowfall within the I-95 metropolitan areas before changeover. Further to the west, an impressive deformation axis is likely to pivot from eastern KY through the eastern OH Valley and into Upstate NY, producing a high likelihood for at least 6 inches of snowfall.

P-type maps on PW showing sleet but it's still adding up lol So I think sleet is included..

Thanks tombo, appreciate the insight.. Hopefully that stays to my south lol

Ggem showing some mixing just like the rgem which is not surprising lol Not as wide spread though..

Precipitation trend

Total precipitation

On that model, no.. This would be a big FU to kbuf CWA lol

Part of it(not all) is due to lower precipitation totals for syracuse..