wolfie09

Here is the afternoon discussion.. Thursday night...a southern stream system will become a bit better organized with the sfc low tracking northeast across Kentucky and Tennessee. Meanwhile...a secondary coastal low will begin to form off the Carolinas which overtime becomes the main sfc low that steams up the coast during the day Friday. Right now...thermal profiles suggest that this will primarily be an all snow event. However...guidance does show a warm layer between 925-850 hPa getting precariously close to the NY/PA boarder on Friday. It won`t be out the realm of possibilities to see a mix...if enough warm air sneaks in aloft. That said...the other concern is the track of the 850H low which isn`t ideal. Initially that won`t inhibit a period of accumulating snow on Thursday night but there could be a period of very light precipitation (little accumulation) or even a lull. Still way too early too get locked into this scenario. Confidence is growing that we will potentially see some accumulating snows...but not enough to lock onto any given solution right now.

Yeah that's what I was thinking as well.. Also the transfer of energy from the primary to the coastal..

While the mean looks solid on the eps , still a decent spread amongst members which is to be expected, obviously lol Some are south, some are north and you get the mean lol Big difference between a couple inches and double digits..

Models look solid in the LR.. Maybe something to watch at the end of month..

Solid run either way..

Yeah a later transfer..

Morning disco A storm system will track northeast from the Tennessee Valley to New England from Thursday night through Friday night. As this system tracks northeast, a secondary coastal low will develop near the NY/NJ coast. The initial storm tracking inland, depending on model guidance is generally somewhere between Buffalo and NYC. While most of the guidance has gone with the eastward trend, making snow more likely for the area, the rest of the guidance has also gone a bit more eastward, resulting in some of the better precip amounts more east of the WNY area. If the storm track does stay on this eastward trend, precip., mostly in the form of snow should be light, but steady for far WNY. Snow amounts would increase to the east, before mixing with rain/sleet/freezing rain, depending on storm track and any warmer layers within the storm. Currently the best chance for precip., regardless of type, looks like from late Thursday night into Friday evening. Behind the passing system for Thursday into late Friday, cold air advection will lower 850H temps to around -20C, prompting some lake enhanced first right behind the storm, and then lake effect. Lake effect behind the passing storm looks limited as of now, as conditions will be lacking for some better development off the lakes.

Canadian..

Ukmet

Comes down to precipitation rates..Light snow accumulates much better in January then march, that's a fact lol Heavy rates can pretty much accumulate anytime..

Euro

GFS still on the southern end of the envelope..

Icon still north

Mid-Atlantic folks gonna be humping the GFS lol

GFS finally caved mid week..

It's is interesting how the snow depth went up 2" from a T of snow lol

Haha didn't notice but I think most of it fell after"observation" time.. Mexico reported 4.3" this morning, SSE lacona and Pulaski didn't report..

You mean Trump supporters? 100%

And just like that the sun is starting to shine lol

Current observation.. Not sure if anyone can see it lol It's a link from Google.. https://photos.app.goo.gl/7snJwTun2EMq32U16

It looks like we may be nearing the end.. Really nasty out right now though..

Lol... It's only one solution of many more to come..

We are fighting off dry air early on with the euro..