wolfie09

Gfs really likes that area just north of Ontario Good thing it's way out there, granted I'll take the LES behind these cutters lol

Well guys you only have to wait 11 days lol Low 960s north of Ontario lol Looks like the SE ridge makes a return after this next trough swings through, verbatim..

And if everything went right lol

Looks like another 2"-4" type deal Imby according to the NWS..

Still close enough to keep an eye on but this ship is sailing..

As shortwave in the larger scale trough and associated sfc trough approach on Friday, large scale forcing will result in showers expanding especially over northern forecast area from Niagara Frontier running along Lake Ontario and extending to east of Lake Ontario as lake enhancement will increase. Followed non- diurnal temp idea on Friday (early highs near 40 with temps dropping into the mid and upper 30s during the afternoon) which matched forecast soundings well. Net result is rain/snow showers becoming more widespread with ptype highly dependant on blyr temps and elevation as temps aloft will be cold enough for mainly snow. Higher terrain of WNY and the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario figure to keep mix of rain/snow or all snow most of Friday. Temps will be marginal for much snow accum over WNY though just a couple degrees of cooling could lead to some more accums than this forecast shows currently. Meanwhile, it should stay cold enough on Tug Hill with persistent upslope flow to result in at least a couple inches of slushy snow on Friday with best chances later in the day as sfc trough/stronger forcing draws closer. Farther inland across Southern Tier, conditions will remain dry until a few rain and snow showers develop later in the afternoon. Friday night the sfc trough continues dropping across the region but deep moisture and larger scale forcing cuts out, so trimmed the pops down by overnight. Best chances for scattered rain and snow showers will be over Southern Tier to eastern Lake Ontario region, including the Tug Hill where another couple inches of snow could still occur. Later Friday night through Sunday, main focus will turn to the Nor`easter of which impacts look to stay east of our forecast area this weekend. Latest ECMWF trended back west slightly, but is also quite a bit faster. If other models join that trend, then eastern Lake Ontario region could get clipped by western edge of snow shield with the system. Just something to keep in mind as we watch model trends next 24-36 hours. Othewise, NW flow to the west of the deepening low with deepening cold air aloft will result in plenty of clouds and some light lake effect snow showers especially southeast of Lake Ontario this weekend. High temps Saturday and Sunday top out in the mid 30s most areas, though it will be as cool as the 20s in the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. For lows, 20s will be a common number, though some teens could occur in typical cold spots

Looks like we have a lot to look forward to

Gfs and NAM have around 6" here from the trough swinging through lol The icon and european have little northern stream snow but a good amount from the southern vort..

Icon was farther west at 0z FWIW.

Here was the 18z OP FWIW, which is not much unless it starts to have some support lol (Kuchera) Source

18z European ensembles from another board..

Right around 3" here since last night, snow continues to hang around..

I was going to move to horseheads many years back until I realized they avg like 40" a year haha Thought I had a better shot on the jersey coast lol

Got your times a little mixed up there brother, it's the start of the afternoon (1pm) , gfs has a little SW snows so we'll see..

I already posted them, still some spread mid month but we could be heading in the wrong direction..

Euro just isn't the same anymore.. From feet to almost nothing in a matter of a few runs..It's not even that far out lol The old euro would of nailed it..

A shortwave trough will sharpen across the Central Great Lakes Friday. A southwest wind will increase across the region as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold air advection and increasing moisture ahead of the front and shortwave trough axis will provide support for the development of showers. Temperatures will be rising into the 40s through the day so mainly rain showers are expected. Snow showers are possible on the Tug Hill where temperatures are slightly lower. While widespread showers are likely, lake enhancement is expected northeast of the Lakes into Friday night. The front will track across the region into Friday night and winds will become westerly with lake effect snow showers expected east of the Lakes. Minor accumulations are expected at this time. Overnight lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s

Nice SW flow ahead of the trough but it's to warm verbatim..

Ukmet has some LES with the trough and than a little NW on the backside..

The trough swinging through is probably our best shot at snow during the next week or so..

If we don't see much by the middle of the month the deficit will start to add up lol I think a place like syracuse should have 10" just in November, not much to look forward to the next 10 days..

Still coming down at a decent clip... About 2" on the ground..

And the first storm with a +PNA/-NAO goes off the coast and misses us SE, not surprising lol

IDK, we maybe going through our best period now lol

Nam is closer to the European just farther east, could back up enough to give us some wrap around moisture..