wolfie09

One positive is it's been pretty cold the last few days with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the teens.. Currently sitting at 18°, ground is plenty cold..

Another increase wrt the kbuf snow map

^^^^ Haha just noticed that, transferred to the WX thread..

Latest HRRR has over an inch liquid for watertown, not sure about p-type..Nws talking about mostly a WSW flow turning"westerly" but HRRR is definitely signaling more SW early on..Will be interesting to see how this model verifies..

It's the surface temperatures that needs to be overcome for the buffalo area..

HRRR continues to like that early SW flow..

I never met a pill that didn't have a side effect lol So it's to be expected tbh..

It says it's SAFE and effective? It just warns about side effects from the 2nd shot.. One Pfizer trial participant told CNBC that after the second shot, he woke up with chills, shaking so hard he cracked a tooth. "It hurt to even just lay in my bed sheet," he said.

The FDA says Pfizer’s Covid vaccine is safe and effective. But trial participants warn of intense symptoms after second shot https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html

WPC D1-2 Liquid

WWA issued for tomorrow.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on the Tug Hill Plateau and higher terrain, with less than 3 inches of accumulation across lower elevations. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday. A strong shortwave will track across Ontario crossing the Ottawa Valley into northern New York tonight. Expect snow to develop after midnight as ascent increases across the region. Boundary layer winds back to west-southwest ahead of this feature with temperatures aloft just cold enough for lake enhancement (around -6C at 850 mb) northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Profiles continuing to suggest mainly snow to start out in most areas, except perhaps right along the immediate lakeshores. Could see lower elevations pick up an inch, maybe two, of snow that could disrupt the early morning commute Wednesday. It looks like the main focus for this event will be across the higher terrain/Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario. Better moisture will be found across this area with a persistent westerly lake enhanced/upslope flow developing through the day Wednesday, before veering to northwest early Wednesday night. Most higher resolution guidance along with WPC guidance hits this area fairly hard with precipitation. Lower elevations probably mix with rain which will drastically cut down on snowfall amounts, but the higher terrain areas could reach at least 6 inches. We therefore issue an Winter Weather Advisory to cover this threat. Breezy west to southwest winds expected to develop late tonight into Wednesday, especially northeast of the Lakes with wind gusts of 30- 35 mph along immediate shorelines. Some leftover northwest flow upslope expected Wednesday night with additional minor accumulations mainly across higher terrain areas where upsloping will be maximized.

Congress N Al and TN lol

Next system will probably miss south and east..

If that HP was positioned a little better we might have a chance lol You can see the 2nd wave getting going to our south..

Hi rez Canadian for Wednesday..

Canadian has a 2nd wave which misses us to the SE, looks like some decent LES from a northern stream disturbance followed by a day 9-10 snow event..lol Always 10 days away..

So the GFS doesn't have a follow up wave like the icon, just some light LES on the backside followed by another weak wave with r/s showers and then a Miller B like system on the 17th/18th..

Icon cuts a system on Sunday with some follow up energy Monday, FWIW..

Snow just before Christmas? Would be nice for once lol

Quite a bit of precipitation on the ARW..It seems the NWS thinks the hi Rez models may be over doing it..

12z HRRR It's funny how the numbers don't match the colors lol

Ocean effect..

Looks like this may be the last event up here for me 9 days away.. I have the place to the 31st so I could always chill up here if we get a big event before January starts lol

Latest map.

Look at the HRRR just south of kbuf lol It's been consistent to granted it's the LR..