wolfie09

Only goes out till 90.. This is not my Kuchera map, so this doesn't count as me posting one

Eyeballing about an inch or so, coming down at a decent clip but flake size is pretty small..

Gonna go out on a limb and say the European is off on this weekends system, 6z took another jump east..

"New" map.

Starting to see some better returns off Ontario..

The European with another nice run especially for the adirondacks and catskills, ggem is a little farther SE (still gives the area a few/several inches), ukmet, gfs and icon are misses for our region.

Give it a year or two I'll be neighbors with Carol..

Spread is west..

For us in CNY Member#10

Here you go guys Member #8

Navy is a transfer scenario..

Just hit the freezing mark now just need some precipitation lol I picked up a quick car topper earlier..

Icon is an eastern version of the euro..

So GFS goes back inland lol Similar to the 12z navy..

EPS

Not saying it's correct but the NAM is definitely more like the european..

LR NAM Fwiw

A well defined spoke of vorticity will orbit the closed low and cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, combining with deep moisture and cyclonic flow to produce fairly widespread synoptic scale snow of limited intensity. High resolution model guidance suggests a brief burst of moderate snow is possible across the Niagara Frontier, including Buffalo, this evening as DPVA maximizes and interacts cooperatively with Georgian Bay and Lake Huron upstream connections. The heaviest accumulations are still expected to focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, with the majority of that accumulation coming from late this afternoon through the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Boundary layer flow will become better aligned from the WNW by this evening after the closed low moves farther away and shear decreases. This will allow for lake enhanced upslope flow to increase in efficiency this evening east of Lake Erie. The strongest upstream connection to Lake Huron will be found in NE Ohio and NW PA, but mesoscale model guidance suggests some weaker secondary banding will tie into the western Southern Tier tonight. Deeper moisture, synoptic support, and colder air aloft pulls away rapidly Wednesday morning, so expect the snow to taper off and end during the morning. Storm total accumulations are still expected to reach a little over a foot locally along the Chautauqua Ridge along a line from Sherman to Mayville and Perrysburg, with 6-9 inches fanning out farther inland across the higher terrain of eastern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and also in the Boston Hills. 4-6 inches is expected for the higher terrain in the western half of Wyoming County. Farther north, expect total accumulations of 1-3 inches for the Niagara Frontier, with local amounts of 4-5 inches in a few spots in central Niagara County. 1-3 inches is also expected in Allegany County, greatest in the higher terrain in the western portion of the county. For the Genesee Valley, most locations will see an inch or less, with 2-4 inches locally for the Bristol Hills. East of Lake Ontario, boundary layer flow through most of tonight remains SW or even SSW, preventing lake enhancement from reaching the Tug Hill Plateau. Upslope flow will produce some modest accumulations on the southwest flank of the Tug Hill, with lake enhancement also producing some minor, slushy accumulations across Jefferson County. Boundary layer flow veers more westerly on Wednesday as the low pulls away, with a relatively brief window for favorable westerly lake enhancement and upslope flow for the Tug Hill Plateau. Snow totals on the Tug Hill may reach 4-8 inches tonight through Wednesday, with 1-3 inches for the surrounding lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region.

It's just one run, hopefully this is a trend towards some earlier phasing and a westward jog lol Wait till the catskills boys see that run lol

It kind of does TS but it's more of a true lake effect than enhancement..

Only 4 days out so not fantasy land, we'll see how this trends over the next day or two..

Last 2 runs of the european..

A shortwave trough riding through the northern-stream longwave trough Thursday. This will produce a surface low which will push east across Canada and drag its associated frontal feature across the region Friday producing chances for showers. Additionally on Thursday, another upper level cut off low over Mid- Mississippi River Valley will interact with the shortwave rounding the base of the northern-stream longwave trough. As these features interact, a second surface low will deepen and push northeast up along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation may start out as snow on the higher terrain Saturday and Sunday morning, with the possibility of a wintry mix in the lower terrain. Some disagreement in the models in regards to placement of the sfc low that develops over the SE U.S. late Saturday into early Sunday, and its track, so kept chance POPs through the period for now. As the low quickly shuffles off the Atlantic coast Sunday, yet another upper level shortwave will round the base of the northern- stream longwave trough, which will at the surface swing a cold front through the area and bringing another round of precipitation chances to the area. Given the deeper cold air advection, any falling precipitation on Monday should be snow

May be a small stripe of snow on the NW side of the low..