wolfie09

It doesn't matter wrt to the synoptic aspect but it changes the wind field on the backside.. Obviously just one model..

Start of a trend?

What's the alternative? People are put on ventilators for a reason, they can't breathe lol So do we just let them suffer gasping for air?

Gfs still showing LES potential but just like the Canadian it doesn't just sit and spin for days in the same location.. Canadian"spreads the love".. Now surface temps could prove problematic..

Here was the Canadian..Globals look good in the LR with some northern stream disturbances and lake effect..See how long that last..

I guess this is the next one huh? Lol

Models continue to come into better agreement with regards to the big picture weather pattern that will impact our area through much of next week. That said, resolving the finer details with respect to sensible weather at the surface is still far from certain, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday period. For the start of the new work week, confidence continues to grow for the likelihood of a widespread soaking rainfall on Monday. A sharpening upper level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the process of becoming a large deepening cut-off upper level closed low as it phases with a weaker southern stream system while moving into the lower Ohio Valley. This will allow a weak surface low over the lower Mississippi Valley originally associated with the southern upper level feature, to begin to rapidly deepen as it accelerates northeast along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians. Plentiful available moisture and strong forcing will provide somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 hour period of steady rain. At this point, potential rainfall amounts still look to be around or possibly a little more than an inch overall. P-type will remain all liquid with the main area of precipitation on Monday as southerly flow keeps warm air locked in place across the forecast area. There will also be the potential for some stronger winds on Monday, however that will depend on the exact track of the low, which as of now is either right over or just west of our forecast area. This will be critical as to how strong the winds could potentially get. If the surface low remains to the west of the area, stronger winds will be possible. The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow amounts is not possible at this point. There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the mid-week timeframe.

European won't be following the ukmet that's for sure, not that I expected it to anyway lol

Sizeable synoptic snowstorm on the ukmet..

Cold enough lol Surface seems to be more marginal towards the lake shore..

Still going for the NW Crew..

GFS starting to get there wrt Lake effect..I need more of WSW Imby, hopefully things improve off Ontario as we get closer lol

Latest Icon is back west with mostly synoptic rain..A nice SW flow sets up on the backside..

Even the farthest east guidance has rain in CNY lol They really have no shot with this one, WNY/NNY still hanging in there lol

Icon Fwiw

Yeah, looks decent for us WSW/SW off Ontario, as does the icon, I'll take it lol Canadian and GFS not as favorable, on to "tomorrow"..

Gfs yuck lol Even wrap around moisture in the form of rain..

An upper level trough will likely become a closed low near the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early next week. Model guidance continues to suggest a deepening area of low pressure to move north parallel to the Appalachians Monday into Tuesday. There remains uncertainty where the track of the closed low will take the surface low however most solutions drive a strong low-level jet across the region resulting in widespread steady rain to move across Western NY and North Central NY. This may result in rainfall amounts of 1 inch+ Monday into Tuesday. The closed low will likely rotate across the Great Lakes or Northeast into Tuesday resulting in a period of unsettled weather. Colder air will eventually move into the region towards mid-week however any snow showers and accumulating snow will depend on the location of the surface low which is uncertain at this time. High temperatures will fall through mid-week with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Monday falling to the upper 30s to low 40s by Wednesday. Low temperatures will follow the same trend with lows in the mid to upper 30s Monday night to the 20s Wednesday night.

Wpc Day 6-7 as of now..

We need that southern vort to speed up or northern energy to slow down, allowing the southern system to get more out front before getting"captured"..

The european does phase just to early lol If timing is off (which most likely it is) then this will obviously change.

It takes about 4 days but we finally see snow on the European lol That's even borderline (lake effect), just another solution..

Yeah it's worst case scenario lol Can't even get some lake effect in..It may sit and "pinwheel" somewhere..

At the local price chopper you can't put your items on the conveyor until it's sanitized..

I think it's more about the equipment Luke..If the equipment is sanitized frequently like shopping carts at a grocery store then I don't see much difference imo.. There is no evidence that the virus can be spread through sweat. However, the virus can be transmitted in places like gyms by other means - through respiratory droplets that pass from person to person or that land on surfaces that multiple people touch, such as gym equipment