Latest model soundings continue to suggest it
will be cold enough to allow for at least some wet snow at the start
of precipitation on Sunday before the strengthening low-level
trough pushes a warm layer aloft and eventually to the sfc across
the region. Thermal profiles remain mainly isothermal though,
right on the edge of rain and snow. Does seem that over majority
of western NY to the Finger Lakes that by time warm layer aloft
arrives Sunday afternoon, near surface temps will be just warm
enough for rain as main ptype. Before that occurs mainly inland
areas will see a couple inches of wet snow on Sunday morning.
By Sunday evening, still some concern that higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario and even lower elevations along the St. Lawrence
River could be looking at snow changing to mix of rain/freezing
rain or sleet depening on how cold it is at surface when warm
layer arrives. Went with mainly rain, but did include small
chance of the wintry mix as well. Possible some minor icing
could occur if coldest surface temps from NAM verify. Right now
this looks like pretty low risk though. Otherwise, most likely
looking at a cold, raw rain. Elsewhere, colder air working in
late behind system will not switch rain back to mix of rain and
snow until after daybreak on Monday. By this time though, steady
precipitation will begin tapering off from west to east as the
surface low moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley and a cold
front sweeps from west to east across the area.