wolfie09

Was just going to post that lol Always a tough forecast between West and WSW, I think the band may move around a decent bit..(off Ontario)

3k nam is bad for all..

With the eastward track I now receive a little enhancement Christmas early afternoon, not much but enough to make it look white..

Man you goes on the south shore just needs this a touch east...The system actually goes over my head lol Big difference from what the NAM was spitting out yesterday..

I don't use any paid sites lol Especially since PW gives us the ukmet and euro..The only thing it doesn't have is the 6z/18z euro but that doesn't justify spending $10-$20 a month lol At least for me...

Sref remain the same FWIW..The track fits in with the rest of guidance but it's seems colder I guess lol

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It's a tight cutoff between Rochester and buffalo verbatim..

With the European I don't pay attention to the numbers just the flow/wind direction..

So the European also goes through CNY and gives WNY like 6"-9" synoptic. lol But the flow is more WSW with the eastward track..

Ukmet is also a westerly event off Ontario like it has been for days..Sends the LP up through CNY..At 500 the ukmet has been number 2 for many years only behind the European..It has to be considered imo..

Canadian is definitely in the West-WSW camp..

That's actually Kuchera so it's taking ratios into account but yeah we usually don't have 10-1 ratios with LES..I think NWS cleveland expects 15-20/1 for their CWA. (Last time I checked).. That's why we have the highest snow to liquid ratio on the east coast..

Gfs was a good deal better here verbatim..18z had around 5" with ratios, 0z just under a foot..

Probably more reasonable..

Maybe it comes in a little east..

Icon is pretty much a firehouse off Ontario..Starts SW but by sat morning it's due west, heads back north later in the day just to return overnight/AM..

^^^ You may wanna duck and hide after that comment haha

The only reason it concerns me is some guidance like the SREF show enhancement of the lake due to its exact track..Sref have 6"-8" verbatim with no lake effect.. Would be a major win lol I expect the lake bands to be north of me Friday, just hope to cash in Saturday..

Almost all guidance goes more north then west..It's more about Synoptic anyway lol Probably should go in other thread lol

It's a western outlier bro..

While the NAM cuts west the sref go north and are much less amped..

Personal opinion is the NAM is to amped/west.. Especially considering the usual amped SREF members are east of the NAM..I guess only time will tell..

I guess its something, a little enhancement east of Ontario.. Need it a little east and I think the lake can deliver a white Christmas..