wolfie09

From Cleveland The average snow ratios used for accumulations was 18 to 1 which may be conservative. Not sure what ours would be..

Not that I worry to much about the NAM anyway..

Pretty funny look off Ontario lol

For here I will have to rely on the lake, what's new? Lol I just hope I don't get skunked there too...

Through hr 45 it's basically 1/2 foot from roc to buff..

Yeah we are cooked but trend is your friend for western portions of the viewing area..

Posted this on both threads since it talks about Synoptic and lake effect.. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be two distinct phases for accumulating snowfall. The first will primarily affect far SW NY Thursday night, which roughly includes higher elevations of Chautauqua County, Western Cattaraugus County, and Southwestern Erie County. This area will get clipped by the heavier synoptic snow, potentially up to 12", on the cold side of a developing surface low moving from PA into the North Country by Friday morning. With the above in mind, issued a Winter Storm Warning for SW NY, knowing that this will need to be converted to a LES Warning after the synoptic snow ends. This should also match our neighbors across the NYS line. The 2nd phase will be lake effect that will develop during Friday, starting out as a relatively weak band initially over far Western NY during the morning. This should intensify however as the band develops a full lake fetch as the coldest air aloft (easily seen by following forecast 500mb temps) moves toward the region from the WSW. Expect a full blown LES band over the Buffalo and possibly northtowns by Friday eve, before the band begins to move S a little again Friday night and settles over the more traditional areas just South of Buffalo and over the Southtowns, where it should slowly weaken through Saturday. There should only be 1-2" from the synoptic snow, then a long enough break before the LES band begins. Therefore, went just with a LES Warning for Northern Erie and (Western portions of) Genesee and Wyoming counties. Adding up both the synoptic snow and LES snow, some areas could see 1-2` of snow. Briefly covering the pattern responsible...a well-formed longwave trough now covers much of the Central US. This has spawned a surface low with associated blizzard conditions over the Upper MidWest. But this feature allows a strong jet on the south side of the trough to spin up a secondary low over the Midwest and into PA by Thursday evening, while abundant moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air over the midwest should then move east, changing any ongoing rain over to snow, at least for WNY. Highest snow totals will be closest to the PA state line/over the Chautauqua Ridge where there may be a little lake enhancement by Friday morning. Far less is expected further inland. Meanwhile, areas from near KROC east to the Eastern Lake Ontario may still wake up to grass instead of a White Christmas. But this will change, at least for lake snow-prone areas as colder air aloft rushes into the region later Friday. As noted above, a full blow LES band will be underway by Friday evening, and a similar lake response is expected ~Friday night ENE of Lake Ontario. This is fairly far out the the forecast though, so left a Watch in place. By Saturday, the LES bands should be ongoing. One concern will be another Canadian-sourced shortwave trough that will race ESE during the day. This may force the lake bands to back a little, particularly east of Lake Ontario, before being snapped back to the ESE later in the day or Saturday eve. With uncertainty and details still a little fuzzy, the Watch seems reasonable for now.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be two distinct phases for accumulating snowfall. The first will primarily affect far SW NY Thursday night, which roughly includes higher elevations of Chautauqua County, Western Cattaraugus County, and Southwestern Erie County. This area will get clipped by the heavier synoptic snow, potentially up to 12", on the cold side of a developing surface low moving from PA into the North Country by Friday morning. With the above in mind, issued a Winter Storm Warning for SW NY, knowing that this will need to be converted to a LES Warning after the synoptic snow ends. This should also match our neighbors across the NYS line. The 2nd phase will be lake effect that will develop during Friday, starting out as a relatively weak band initially over far Western NY during the morning. This should intensify however as the band develops a full lake fetch as the coldest air aloft (easily seen by following forecast 500mb temps) moves toward the region from the WSW. Expect a full blown LES band over the Buffalo and possibly northtowns by Friday eve, before the band begins to move S a little again Friday night and settles over the more traditional areas just South of Buffalo and over the Southtowns, where it should slowly weaken through Saturday. There should only be 1-2" from the synoptic snow, then a long enough break before the LES band begins. Therefore, went just with a LES Warning for Northern Erie and (Western portions of) Genesee and Wyoming counties. Adding up both the synoptic snow and LES snow, some areas could see 1-2` of snow. Briefly covering the pattern responsible...a well-formed longwave trough now covers much of the Central US. This has spawned a surface low with associated blizzard conditions over the Upper MidWest. But this feature allows a strong jet on the south side of the trough to spin up a secondary low over the Midwest and into PA by Thursday evening, while abundant moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air over the midwest should then move east, changing any ongoing rain over to snow, at least for WNY. Highest snow totals will be closest to the PA state line/over the Chautauqua Ridge where there may be a little lake enhancement by Friday morning. Far less is expected further inland. Meanwhile, areas from near KROC east to the Eastern Lake Ontario may still wake up to grass instead of a White Christmas. But this will change, at least for lake snow-prone areas as colder air aloft rushes into the region later Friday. As noted above, a full blow LES band will be underway by Friday evening, and a similar lake response is expected ~Friday night ENE of Lake Ontario. This is fairly far out the the forecast though, so left a Watch in place. By Saturday, the LES bands should be ongoing. One concern will be another Canadian-sourced shortwave trough that will race ESE during the day. This may force the lake bands to back a little, particularly east of Lake Ontario, before being snapped back to the ESE later in the day or Saturday eve. With uncertainty and details still a little fuzzy, the Watch seems reasonable for now.

Looks like buffalo hasn't updated the LR AFD for several cycles..

Still a watch here, probably have to wait till tomorrow for a potential warning.. WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than a foot possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow covered roads and poor visibility.

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. This will initially be widespread wet snow Thursday night, followed more localized lake effect snow Friday into Saturday. There may be a break in the snowfall Friday before the lake effect snow kicks in. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 22 inches. Lower accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected over the southwest half of Cattaraugus County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Lake snows will develop over southwest NY during the day and move north and intensify during the afternoon. Snow will be heaviest during the evening before lake bands move back toward the south on Saturday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 17 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Lower accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected over eastern portions of Genesee and Wyoming counties. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

I wish they would show the whole event lol They don't wanna include Sat yet.. Looks like they are low-balling the synoptic portion but who knows, they are the pros not me..

Last run of the 12z suite, looks similar to previous runs..Starts WSW Friday evening and sinks south for Saturday..

Cautiously optimistic lol I have been burned way to many times in the SR..Still have a couple days before the meso-models get into range..

8.8" for kbuf on the European, roc 2.9".

Absolute crush job on the ukmet at 10-1 lol It probably went a little over board but I like the flow which is what I'm looking at..Starts Friday evening ends during the day Sunday.. Ukmet shows LES better than you would expect for a lower resolution model..

Good run for buffalo..(not sure if any of this is LES)

We have a pretty good consensus wrt track, it's thermal profile thats the issue.. Majority of models bring this just east of Ontario, pretty much right over my head..

Here is the ukmet..I'll know in about 30 min if any of it is snow lol

Another nice hit on the global Canadian..

Last panel of the rgem looks like it's backing west, have no problem sharing with freak as long as I get mine lol

Can't make this stuff up lol Rgem out to 84 is mainly WNW off Ontario just like the ukmet has been showing.. Granted it's the LR Rgem but it would be something else to go from being to far south to being to far north lol