wolfie09

Updated off Ontario shows the wind direction I'm hoping for.. Then, after trough moves through, boundary layer flow will again veer westerly this evening (270-280 direction), pushing heavy lake effect snow back south to the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates will continue at 2-3 inches per hour in the heaviest portion of this band through much of the night.

You guys have a shot on Tuesday albeit short lived..The typical WSW-NW quick hitter lol

Canadians vs Americans who you got? Lol Hrdps keeps a strong band semi stationary through the night until it "retracts" back to the lake..Has about 1.25"-1.50" LE from pulaski to sandy creek..Let's go Canada!!

Here is without sleet.. Obviously timing will change, hopefully for the better lol Razor thin like Dave mentioned..

Farther west at 12z..

We finally have the para back on PW, updates 4 times a day as well..

Since you're good buddies now tell him bring back storm chasers

Getting my first taste of crack..lol Looks weird but it's snowing..I think we had like 1/2" early this morning..

I'll be riding the RGEM like seabiscuit lol WRF models look pretty bad, hardly even have a band after 10 pm tonight..The NWS has 2"-3" an hour stuff overnight.. Rgem for example has over an inch liquid (1.25+ total) between 3z and 12z..I guess only time will tell... Boundary layer flow will then again veer westerly this evening, pushing heavy lake effect snow back south to the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates will continue at 2-3 inches per hour in the heaviest portion of this band through much of the night

Rgem has close to an inch and half liquid, most of it this evening..

Going to be a band of snow tonight that will save the day lol This first band is expected to start slowly shifting south in the next few hours..

Some of those roads in the tug are extremely hard to get through even without snow lol And they aren't maintained..I went on one road near barns corner and the next thing I knew I was in the woods lmao No joke road just ended lol

Yup and still have the keys lol I'm not officially out until the 31st.. I'm not big into chasing ...Lol

Copenhagen special..

Lake effect snow was slow to organize overnight, but that has changed now as convergence increases just ahead of the trough. An intensifying band of lake effect snow over Watertown early this morning will swing rapidly south across Watertown, ending up across the central Tug Hill later this morning as boundary layer flow briefly veers westerly. Snowfall rates will increase to 2-3 inches per hour during this time. Boundary layer flow will then back to the southwest again this afternoon, carrying heavy lake effect snow back to central Jefferson County from Watertown down the Route 3 corridor. Boundary layer flow will then again veer westerly this evening, pushing heavy lake effect snow back south to the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall rates will continue at 2-3 inches per hour in the heaviest portion of this band through much of the night. Additional accumulations of 10-16 inches appear likely across much of central and southern Jefferson County and northern Oswego County today through tonight from several rounds of heavy snow. The greatest accumulations will be found across the central and northern Tug Hill where the band interacts with terrain, expect 2-3 feet of accumulation near the triple point of Jefferson/Oswego/Lewis counties. The lake snow will continue through early Sunday morning, then rapidly weaken and move north across Jefferson County from mid morning to midday as boundary layer flow backs to the SSW and inversion heights quickly lower

New map not much different, throws me another inch lol Spread of 7" shows some indecision..

We'll see how this keeps evolving as we go day by day lol

Rgem with a nice look for Mon night/Tues, band should drop south as the system progresses east..

Well that's obvious lol Uncertainty for tomorrow too..But it was progged to go into the metro Friday like I said, of course things change it's lake effect..

Gfs had LES into buffalo by 18z today just a couple days ago.. Same for NAM products..

. East of Lake Erie...some models move the band well into the Northtowns while others place it toward Metro Buffalo Friday afternoon. Regardless, the coldest airmass should pass overhead Friday evening and mark the period for the heaviest and most intense lake effect snow, where 2"/hr and thundersnow will be a possibility into Friday night as the band settles a little to the south overnight.

Do you really want me to go back and get the previous discussion? Lol When they started putting watches out.. You posted it lol

I went from 30" to almost nothing twice the year Matt lived up here (lol) and that was overnight haha.. I'm pretty sure Wxwatcher came up for one of those events and jinxed pulaski (), he had to head to watertown to see snow lol