wolfie09

Rgem keeps the bulk of the next LES event just to my south as winds are more "west" then "north".. Obviously I'll be keeping an eye on it lol

Much colder air will pour across the area Monday night and Tuesday in the wake of a secondary cold frontal passage, with 850Ts dropping down into the mid negative teens Celsius. As equilibrium levels rise to near 10K feet, bands of lake effect snow will blossom within a WNW to NW flow. It is looking more and more likely that there will be at least some semblance of an upstream connection with Lake Huron/Georgian Bay. This only increases the potential for some advisory level snows, mainly ESE/SE of the Lakes, especially ESE/SE of Lake Ontario during the second half of Monday night through Tuesday morning. Thus, have upped snow amounts some during this timeframe as things become a bit more clear. If confidence continues to grow, winter headlines may be needed

Yeah just like last event that large bermuda high is going to be an issue..

You guys have a shot on Tuesday albeit short lived..The typical WSW-NW quick hitter lol

Here is without sleet.. Obviously timing will change, hopefully for the better lol Razor thin like Dave mentioned..

Farther west at 12z..

We finally have the para back on PW, updates 4 times a day as well..

We'll see how this keeps evolving as we go day by day lol

Rgem with a nice look for Mon night/Tues, band should drop south as the system progresses east..

There is a wave just weak and no surface reflection..Euro does the same..

Happy New year

Pretty much identical lol Snow does move east verbatim with a low in eastern NY..

Canadian is most aggressive for early next week, flow goes back and forth from West-WNW..

Yeah we flipped to snow here, starting to see a little white..

Let's try this again? Lol Precipitation chances will then ramp up again Wednesday night into Thursday as the next stronger area of low pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes. The setup with this storm system looks similar to the situation we are are currently dealing with, even with a potential wave developing along the system`s trailing cold front and riding north along the boundary right across or near our area. This will bear watching as it could have impacts for New Years Eve into New Years Day. Stay tuned.

European has a little more "northerly" flow as well at the end of the event..

Christmas sleet here lol Starting to cover the deck some..

Gfs and euro now forecast covid-19? Lol I kid I kid..

Merry Christmas to all !! Same pattern for years, cutter followed by lake effect followed by another cutter and more lake effect lol A dry start to Sunday night will quickly come to an end as weak low pressure moves by to the northwest swinging a cold front through the area. This will bring some rain and snow showers to the region along with some windy conditions for later Sunday night into Monday. These winds will eventually usher in the next chilly airmass along with the chance for lake effect snow east and southeast of the Lakes from Monday afternoon through at least a portion of Tuesday depending on how quickly a large area of high pressure builds in across the area from the west

HRW models showing between 4"-6" overnight for kbuf which matches the hi rez Canadian and HRRR, albeit razor thin lol

It's one of the only models giving CNY several inches, not so sure about that lol