I'm not going to be able to track anything on Saturday afternoon as I'll be at a friend's birthday, so you can all expect to have the biggest severe outbreak of the decade.
This is like the inverse of last summer when the models kept trying to break down the WAR past D10 only to get slapped back to reality in the mid range. I'm not going to complain.
Today was fantastic, spent 10 hours on the roof with some friends. I'm glad the GFS has backed off the 90s for next week, even if it comes at the price of some more rainy days.
The lack of recent years here really surprised me at first but now that I think about it I can't remember any June that felt oppressively hot. Very different story for July and August.
RGEM/HRDPS aren't the first models I'd use for severe weather. Then again, the NAM and HRRR haven't exactly been killing it with the plains outbreaks recently.
Clearing looks better than I expected in PA. I couldn't tell you how many severe outbreaks fizzled growing up there because the sun decided not to make an appearance.
I know, it was so beautiful this morning with the clear sky and cool breeze. Too bad we get so few truly nice days every year. Now in two weeks we're going to turn into Atlanta for the rest of the summer.
The one 60% tornado risk in history spawned 47 tornadoes, which is pretty much exactly average for all high risks. I don't remember if that was considered a mini-bust or not.