Gravity Wave

Euro looks about equally hot as far as 850s are concerned but relief arrives late Monday as opposed to Tuesday on the last few runs.

Good point, after the past few years I've been conditioned to assume that major heat is usually coupled with high humidity.

Impressive that the city managed to get to 106 after only starting at 77.

Yeah 100/66 seems way more realistic than 95/80. It's extremely hard to get the air temperature that high with DPs at that level.

12z GFS remains less bullish with DPs. At 18z Saturday the metro is right at 100 but the 66-68 degree dewpoint keeps the heat index around 105 rather than 110+.

The 6z GFS is a lot less aggressive with dews, low to mid 70s across the area. The 6z also cuts the worst heat off after Saturday, I'm interested to see if that becomes a trend or if its just a blip.

Exact temps depend on the model but dews will be lower.

Yeah this is looking more like a Friday-Monday event rather than Thursday-Sunday. The 12z suite has relief arriving in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

I'm not buying the extreme heat until it shows up inside 100 hours. I'm also rooting for no 95+ temps so that we have a shot at a top 5 hottest July without any extreme heat, which would be very impressive.

It's extremely pronounced on the anomaly maps. The entire region can be below average and the cities will be bright red, and that's with 1981-2010 averages.

The rain in PA means business. Over 1 inch in 18 minutes in Allentown.

Kind of looks like last summer in that the highest departures were to our north.

Anyone think we'll see 110 at any of the NYC stations in our lifetimes?

A record-setting -NAO in May and June is quite the nasty gut punch after the garbage winter we had.

Euro and EPS keep the southeast ridge in check. Hopefully this holds up.

I remember that. I was mostly hanging out in the Upstate NY forum then since I was in Ithaca but I lurked here when it looked like this would become an HECS. I remember a 0z NAM run 36 hours out or so that gave most of NNJ and the LHV 40"+. Easily the worst bust I've seen since I didn't follow the weather closely in March 2001 (although I do remember watching Local on the 8's and having my totals in Allentown slashed throughout that Sunday before the storm). The worst bust I ever experienced personally was January 2014 in Ithaca. It was a rare major snyoptic storm in upstate NY, and the Finger Lakes were, for once, the jackpot zone in all of the models. 16-20", and from how the storm was overperforming in the midwest it seemed like 2 feet was within reach. Every model was on board the night before, with the exception of the old RAP (I think) which had the heaviest snow sliding south, although it was still giving me 8-10". I went to bed expecting to wake up to heavy snow and no classes. When I woke up I heard a car passing on the road outside, and it sounded like it was driving through slush rather than compacted snow as you would expect in a big storm. Sure enough, when I looked outside we had 2 inches of pixie dust and a slushy coating on all the roads, with light snow falling. As it turned out, the RAP was right about the track, and a deathband had set up over an Oneonta-Binghamton-Elmira axis that ended up dropping 24-30" along most of the I-88 corridor. The subsidence from that band killed us and Ithaca ended up with 6", which was pretty much the lowest amount anyone in Upstate got from that storm (areas to the west cashed in more since the deathband hadn't set up yet and there was less subsidence, and areas to the north got lake enhancement and were north of the worst subsidence). Probably my worst weather memory.