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Gravity Wave

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Everything posted by Gravity Wave

  1. Gravity Wave
    The marginal temps (and lack of a truly cold antecedent airmass) are keeping me from being optimistic about this storm in the city. Unless the CCB parks overhead like the NAM showed we're going to struggle to get more than a slushy coating anywhere. Even in the NAM scenario we'll lose quite a bit of QPF to melting on contact. 6" is the absolute ceiling for the city IMO (not including the park where melt is less of an issue).
  2. Gravity Wave
    Heavy rain in Manhattan despite the radar showing only scattered showers in the area.
  3. Gravity Wave
    Very impressive, especially given the far greater UHI effect now compared to back then.
  4. Gravity Wave
    Between the air temperature and the wind it was very uncomfortable being out and about in city today. I wish we could get more classic fall days (clear with highs in the 50s) but fall seems to be becoming increasingly abbreviated with all the AN Septembers and Octobers and BN Novembers.
  5. Gravity Wave
    To be fair, the "good" pattern last year was on the weeklies beyond 2 weeks. It never showed up on the OP models and kept getting pushed back on the weeklies. First it was late January, then 1st week of Feb, then President's Day, and then it finally locked in just in time to ruin the spring.
  6. Gravity Wave
    The pattern over the past few years has also been that the Arctic sea ice recovers much less rapidly in the Alaska/Chukchi Sea area compared with the rest of the arctic, which I imagine will help keep sustaining that positive anomaly off Alaska. Could this be a self-reinforcing cycle that will contribute to a more sustained western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the US during the winter?
  7. Gravity Wave
    If the GFS is right we'll keep building on that negative anomaly for another week after that. Moderation comes around the 20th.
  8. Gravity Wave
    The solar minimum definitely helps, and should continue to help for the next few winters as well.
  9. Gravity Wave
    Still holding together pretty well...
  10. Gravity Wave
    Lots of flash flooding reports in PA with this line. 2-3" being dropped on saturated ground in a short period of time.
  11. Gravity Wave
    This outbreak today isn't going to be a joke from the Mid Atlantic. Second straight year with a big autumn severe outbreak in the region after last October's tornado outbreak in PA.
  12. Gravity Wave
    I think this has been discussed a lot on here before but isn't the general consensus that the sample size of winters with notable October-November snowfalls for the NYC area is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about how such a winter will turn out?
  13. Gravity Wave
    OK, thanks for the update.
  14. Gravity Wave
    I think the all time record low temp for the lower 48 in October was set at Peter Sinks, Utah yesterday (-35!!!), breaking the record from 1917. It might get broken again tomorrow morning too.
  15. Gravity Wave
    Ignoring the low skill areas, this would imply that the CFS sees a +PNA, correct? Or do the higher anomalies in Alaska indicate that the ridge will be too far west?
  16. Gravity Wave
    The stalled patterns this decade are really something. Imagine if the next stuck pattern is a Midwest trough to go with our WAR.
  17. Gravity Wave
    A more west-based version of 2014-15 wouldn't be that bad. The trough that year was too far east and so the Mid Atlantic got fringed repeatedly.
  18. Gravity Wave
    Great coup by the NAM but the failure here by the other models is concerning.
  19. Gravity Wave
    New Euro and UKMET seasonal snowfall outlooks are out. Long story short: December is a disaster, January is below average, and February is great. I don't trust these at all but they fact that both are in broad agreement is somewhat interesting. https://www.bennollweather.com/ukmet https://bennollweather.com/ecmwf
  20. Gravity Wave
    That developing system in the Gulf looks like it's going to rob us of our last chance of hitting 80 this year. If you believe the 12z GFS there aren't even any 70s on the horizon.
  21. Gravity Wave
    The NAM is wetter than the HRRR but it seems to better reflect the radar so I'd lean towards it.
  22. Gravity Wave
    Definitely a nowcasting situation. Good thing it's not winter!
  23. Gravity Wave
    Euro is the clear outlier on the rain front, everything else is widespread 1.5-2"+.
  24. Gravity Wave
    Definitely more rain than I expected here. There was a nice gust as I walked into work but the winds have generally been tame.
  25. Gravity Wave
    Man if this was in January we'd be going crazy with these massive shifts inside 100 hours.
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