Chicago WX

Pounding snow here right now. Better sized flakes getting mixed in too. 

Coming down pretty nicely here right now. And blowing sideways. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

That would probably be it.  Mine was 2/24/16.  Can't remember when you moved back to IKK but even if you were there for that 2016 storm, they didn't get nearly as much as areas just northeast.

I've mentioned it before but this gradient was crazy for a synoptic system. 

I moved back to IKK in June 2015. Feb 28-Mar 1, 2015 was my going away present. It got close to dd's, but not quite. Nov 2015 was about 8" here, so I thought I'd see one quickly. I was wrong, lol. And I do remember that Feb 2016 storm. Such a super close miss. Eastern edge of the county here got buried.

2 minutes ago, vortex said:

Snowing there?   

Yep. Been snowing for the past hour or so. Nothing heavy, yet. Keep waiting for the returns just to the south...

1"/hour at IND. 0.12" in the bucket.

KIND 302254Z 11013KT 1/2SM R05L/3500V6000FT SN FZFG OVC007 M01/M02 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP160 SNINCR 1/1 P0012 T10061017

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Temp has dipped to 31 here.

Same here. Winds getting gusty too. 

I was trying to remember the last storm that I saw 10"+...and pretty sure it's Jan 5, 2014. This storm won't do it either for me, so the wait will go on...but geez, that's really awful. 

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

21z RAP has a foot south of Chicago.

In the LAF

Back to all snow here.

34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd be a little surprised if there aren't at least isolated 10"+ amounts in the LOT cwa.  Favored areas would be near the lake and around/south of I-80.

New LOT AFD slashes totals to 2-5” here. 

7 minutes ago, vortex said:

Just started snowing here.  It’s been all snow with some nice flake size.  
 

I’m downtown today, and it’s been lightly snowing for an hour or so. Mostly rimed flakes. But as you said, flake size is real nice right now. If we can hold onto to that for the meat and potatoes of this event, then...

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

"They" say these things like to drift north at the last minute.

Seriously, hope it's not as dramatic as what the HRRR, etc are depicting.  The way it hits a wall to that extreme does seem a little fishy but maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

They.  But yeah, I know the drill. Not my first storm, lol. Hopefully a lot of people do well. 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The CAMs are still doing that thing where the most intense reflectivity sort of hits a wall as it tries to get into Chicago metro.  

17z HRRR just parks and rots it over IKK. It’s like the I-80 wall, but in reverse. 

Let’s do this. 

Spitting a few flakes here right now.

Always FWIW, but the 9z RAP was something. NSFW snow totals to the south/southwest of me.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It should rip like crazy there for a while.  Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area.  Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done.  You're good to go.  Enjoy.

lol, I know. You know me though, nervous to the end. 
On another note, looping the p-type maps on COD for the 18z NAMs is sorta fun with how the rain/snow transition takes place to the southwest. This whole thing kinda reminds me of 12/5/05, though that one was colder...but boy did it pound quickly.

36 minutes ago, vortex said:

Plumes down to 5.6” here.  
Nice group between 6-8 but also a nice group between 4-6.  Lol. 
I’ll go 6” here. 
We definitely overdue.  

Trending in the wrong direction . Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. 
Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Kankakee looking good on the 12z Euro.

It’s been steady. Hope it’s the king again. But all other models are decreasing snowfall for here, for various reasons. And I’m still a little leery about that much snow, in a short amount of time. I think I’d make a call of 3-6” right now, all things considered. 

5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

13 is lucky, right? 

32 minutes ago, vortex said:

Southern cutoff is rough.  

Writing is on the wall for us. Too many fail modes present versus succeeding. Just a 30 mile shift and it’s 1.00+ of cold cold rain. Maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two on the front end...with some consolation flakes at the end. 

A lot to like if you're in and around Chicago on the 12z NAM. Mid/upper level lows all take a nice track for a band of heavy snow. Think I-80 to the border is going to cash quite nicely. I think most times, these systems like to bleed a little further north than forecasted. Read the overnight AFD from LOT, and they have the heaviest a little farther north...I-88 to far north central IL. And mainly rain from I-80 to the south. Again, I think it's more I-80 on north for the heaviest snows...and the changeover to all rain, after a brief start of frozen, looks solid for the southern CWA.  

Meh. At this range, I'd only feel somewhat comfortable if the models were showing a STL/PAH/etc hit. 

First (maybe final) call...

DSM: 8

MSP: 6

CR: 11.94

cyclone: 12

alek: 14

Hoosier: 9.9

SE MI: 10.0

Bowme: 10.0

MSN: 8.0

Yeah, I'm not going to waste much time on this one. Can already see where this one is going to go.

This morning's LOT AFD says all snow I-80 and north. So...south of I-80...

23 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

10.3" (0.47" liquid) at DSM as of midnight. And been snowing since. What a winter for them.

Mood snows here this morning. Little bit of freezing drizzle overnight. Glaciated. 

Make that 12.6" total as of 6:00 AM. 41.6" on the season there now. Killing it.

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

WPC

Loyal to the American brand, they are.