Chicago WX

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm gonna disagree with that for most of the sub.  If anybody comes in cooler than average, I'd favor it in the southern part.

You're the JB of summer forecasting. What are we going with this year, a combo of 1936 and 2012? 

On 5/24/2021 at 11:26 AM, Hoosier said:

Late week looks like a better shot at some rain.  Hopefully the impressive sub 0.5" streak holds... would be a shame to lose it on a squeaker.

0.77". It's ovah.

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As of this writing, ORD is at 2.45" for met Spring.  A top 3 driest finish looks like a virtual lock, with a pretty decent chance to finish at #2.  #1 would take a minor miracle.

3.22" now. 2nd place gone. Thursday-Friday system may push this spring out of the top 5 possibly, according to some guidance. We'll see...

^ Best climo

I remember when the concern was the water levels on the Lakes were too low. Wasn't that long ago really...

Models and forecast were awful on rainfall amounts for here for the past 2 days. Way too high. Just been bouts of light rain, adding up to 0.30". Didn't want a ton of rain...don't need it...but a little more would've been better for my new sod in the backyard. 

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'm curious to find out why there are discrepancies of that magnitude.  In theory, the official averages being higher than xmACIS would actually make it a little easier to obtain colder than average months going forward.

Lol, yes. But with ORD, still doubtful.
 

I’m not sure why I even ran the numbers. But when I did, and compared them to the new normal numbers, I was a bit surprised. A tenth or two here or there, sure. But almost a full degree every month, questionable at best...

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I sat in on a webinar a few weeks ago where they discussed that they massaged the numbers, but I don't remember if they mentioned any specifics or at least had any examples. I won't be back into the office until midweek, but I'll look to see if I saved it, and if so, will check to see if there is any helpful dialog. As you said, Ricky may have some answers

Cool, thanks. Like I said in the other post, I know they played with the numbers a bit, but going up almost a full degree for every month is quite...um, interesting. Of course, maybe the values on xmACIS aren't the real/official numbers or something. Don't know...

2.13" total in the stratus. Thankfully this abomination is over. Looking forward to a nice dry week.

I was looking at the new normals for ORD, and noticed something interesting I guess. I went to xmACIS and ran the numbers for the 30 year period, and the mean values on there are a bit different than what NOAA is going with the new official normals. Straight mean average temps are 0.9 cooler on xmACXIS versus NOAA. Precipitation is basically the same. Snowfall is an inch difference. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, and I know they like to "massage" the normals, but the average temps are kinda especially different. Maybe RC has some intel on the process here...

Month: Avg Temp NOAA (xmACIS)...Precip NOAA (xmACIS)...Snowfall NOAA (xmACIS)

January: 25.2 (24.2)...1.99 (1.98)...11.3 (11.7)

February: 28.8 (27.8)...1.97 (1.97)...10.7 (9.8)

March: 39.0 (38.1)...2.45 (2.45)...5.5 (5.1)

April: 49.7 (48.8)...3.75 (3.75)...1.3 (1.3)

May: 60.6 (59.7)...4.49 (4.49)

June: 70.6 (69.7)...4.10 (4.12)

July: 75.4 (74.6)...3.71 (3.71)

August: 73.8 (73.0)...4.25 (4.24)

September: 66.3 (65.5)...3.19 (3.19)

October: 54.0 (53.2)...3.43 (3.43)...0.2 (0.2)

November: 41.3 (40.4)...2.42 (2.42)...1.8 (1.8)

December: 30.5 (29.6)...2.11 (2.10)...7.6 (7.6)

Annual: 51.3 (50.4)...37.86 (37.85)...38.4 (37.4)

Nope, no lightning here. Just a cold cold rain...currently 38.8˚ and pouring. After the past couple of weeks worth of rain, don't want to hear about any drought nonsense here. 

That random 0.1” around IKK. 

Regardless of the snow, what an awful cold wet storm for almost mid May. 

I ran a 5K and drank a 12 pack of Two Hearted Ale after my shot.

But for real, I had about a 12 hour period of feeling tired and sluggish the day after my shot. But by evening I was good to go. Arm was sore for about 2-3 days.  Everyone is different though...

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You will be wishing for drought the next time you're dealing with a flooded house.   

Always pull for drought, lol. Summer monsoon in IKK is as big of a lock as Chad Evans calling for a hot summer.  

This spring has been nice so far, with no big rain events here. But, 1.68" in my stratus yesterday. Though I'm sure your beloved drought monitor will still show impending doom.  

42 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Our regular carrier wears shorts as long as it's in the upper 40's. I'm like, dude, really?

We had a guy who wore shorts all the time. Didn’t matter the temperature. And I’m being serious. But he eventually went into management, so now it all makes sense. 

Cold monsoon continues here. I don’t want to see anymore drought crap for around here for awhile...

Front moved thru here. Rather abrupt temp change. My shorts not working so well now. Thought it was going to hold off until later in the afternoon/evening. 

Of course after my last post, snow has picked in intensity.  Grass getting almost all covered. Roof tops accumulating too.

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Easy over.


.

Not unless rates pick up here. Just been a steady light snow all morning. Some slushy accums on the grass tips, stairs, etc...but nothing too great. 

Snowing here now. Just gonna be a white rainer though...

Anyways, 12z NAM is an acceptable outcome. If we're going to do this...then let's really do this.

Getting the J&J vaccine on Friday at Walgreens. Parents have had their first and are coming up on their second. GF and her mom fully vaccinated too. So my closest circle is about complete. 

On a scale from 1 to 10, today is a 0. F*ck this weather.

Pouring rain and sleet. Elevated objects (wires, etc) are iced up, even with the windy conditions. 31˚/26˚ at mi casa. Good thing I got the day off. Time for a nap. 

Sleet. 32˚/17˚ at my house. East winds have gusted as high as 43 mph this morning. Just a nasty nasty day.  

RC is starting the celebration early this year. 

Sunday (St. Patrick`s Day) also has an increasing chance to end up
dry and seasonable, especially if the bowling ball over the High
Plains continues to slow. Official forecast has some low PoPs due
to some operational and ensemble members still slightly faster.
While it`s several days out, think that trend will be toward
consensus of slower ECMWF suite, which would hold rain off until
Sunday night at the earliest, and possibly not until Monday.
Temperatures will be in the 40s on Sunday for most, though again
upper 30s lakeside. Chance PoPs on Monday appear quite reasonable
and if this ends up being the day with more widespread light to
moderate rain as it appears it could be, temperatures would
probably also end up lower than in official forecast. Pattern
looks to remain on the active side beyond day 7, with typically
low confidence in the details. The current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks favor temperatures to average out below normal.

Castro

Snowiest Februaries for Chicago

1) 29.0" in 2011

2) 27.8" in 1896

3) 26.8" in 2015

4) 26.2" in 1994

5) 22.6" in 1900

T6) 22.5" in 2010

T6) 22.5" in 1967

8) 21.8" in 2008

9) 21.6" in 2021

10) 21.1" in 1901

T11) 20.3" in 2018

T11) 20.3" in 2007

13) 19.8" in 1908

14) 19.7" in 1978

15) 19.5" in 2014

21) 16.1" in 2013

Though there have been some clunkers too, in the past 20 or so. Especially some early-mid 2000's Februaries...

1) T in 2017

T14) 1.5" in 2003

16) 1.8" in 2002

T20) 2.2" in 2001

21) 2.5" in 2006

22) 2.7" in 2005